ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2022
Assessing the impact of ambient temperature on the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: New insight from the disease severity and burden.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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2 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- Impact of precipitation patterns on the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Southwest China: insight from a disease burden perspective.BMC public health · 2025Article
- 'Tomato flu' a new epidemic in India: Virology, epidemiology, and clinical features.New microbes and new infections · 2023Review
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5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe association between the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and ambient temperature has been well documented. Although the severity of symptoms is an important indicator of disease burden and varies significantly across cases, it usually was ignored in previous studies, potentially leading to biased estimates of the health impact of temperature.
methodsWe estimated the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) by considering the severity of symptoms for each HFMD case reported during 2010-2012 in Guangdong and used distributed lag-nonlinear models to estimate the association between the daily average temperature and daily DALY of HFMD cases at the city-level. We investigated the potential effect modifiers on the pathway between temperature and DALY and pooled city-specific estimates to a provincial association using a meta-regression. The overall impact of temperature was further evaluated by estimates of DALYs that could be attributed to HFMD.
resultsThe overall cumulative effect of daily mean temperature on the DALY of HFMD showed an inverse-U shape, with the maximum effect estimated to be β = 0.0331 (95%CI: 0.0199-0.0463) DALY at 23.8°C. Overall, a total of 6.432 (95%CI: 3.942-8.885) DALYs (attributable fraction = 2.721%, 95%CI: 1.660-3.759%) could be attributed to temperature exposure. All the demographic subgroups had a similar trend as the main analysis, while the magnitude of the peak of the temperature impact tended to be higher among the males, those aged ≥3yrs or from the Pear-River Delta region. Additionally, the impact of temperature on DALY elevated significantly with the increasing population density, per capita GDP, and per capita green space in parks.
conclusionsTemperature exposure was associated with increased burden of HFMD nonlinearly, with certain groups such as boys and those from areas with greater population density being more vulnerable.
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