ArticleEuropean journal of epidemiology2022
Projected prevalence and incidence of dementia accounting for secular trends and birth cohort effects: a population-based microsimulation study.
Article in European journal of epidemiology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Time to nursing home admission and death in people with dementia: systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2025Pooled it
- Forecast of dementia prevalence in Germany and subnational regions until 2060 using microsimulation.European journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- The principles of Population-Level Approaches to Dementia Risk Reduction (PLADRR).PLoS medicine · 2026Article
- Precision prevention for neurodegenerative diseases: lessons learnt from Alzheimer's disease translated into perspectives for Parkinson's disease.Journal of neural transmission (Vienna, Austria : 1996) · 2026Review
- A Systems-Level Transcriptomic Framework Identifies Shared Cellular Hubs in Osteoarthritis and Alzheimer's Disease.Computational and structural biotechnology journal · 2026Article
- Article
- The impact of modifiable risk factor reduction on future dementia burden: a microsimulation modeling study.European journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Cognitive performance classification of older patients using machine learning and electronic medical records.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Dementia Incidence in Quebec Over 20 Years.JAMA network open · 2024Article
- Cohort Profile: Dementia Risk Prediction Project (DRPP).International journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Article
- Clinical trials in vascular cognitive impairment following SPRINT-MIND: An international perspective.Cell reports. Medicine · 2023Review
- Cost-effectiveness models for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias: IPECAD modeling workshop cross-comparison challenge.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
There is need for accurate projections of the future dementia burden to prepare healthcare systems and policymakers. Existing projections only account for population ageing, not for observed declines in age-specific dementia incidence of 13% per decade. We developed a dementia microsimulation model that synthesizes population-based data from the Rotterdam Study with changes in demographics between birth cohorts from the early 1900s onwards. We determined dementia prevalence and incidence until 2050 for three different dementia incidence trend scenarios: (1) stable age-specific incidence, (2) linear decline by 13% per decade, (3) nonlinear declines averaging 13% per decade. Assuming a stable age-specific incidence resulted in a 130% increase in incidence and 118% in prevalence between 2020 and 2050. By contrast, the linearly declining trend resulted in substantially smaller increases of 58% in incidence (95%CI: 29-87%), and 43% in prevalence (95%CI: 13-66%), corresponding to 39% lower incidence and 36% lower prevalence by 2050 than in the stable-incidence scenario. Results for various non-linear declines fell between the stable and linear trend. The future burden of dementia is highly susceptible to achievable changes in age-specific incidence. Extension of previously established secular trends globally would reduce widely upheld projections of new dementia cases until 2050 by 39%.
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