ArticleBMC public health2022
Spatio-temporal evolution and trend prediction of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China: a sample of statistical data from 2007 to 2020.
Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Spatio-Temporal COVID-19 Modeling: A Global Systematic Review of Data Integration, Equity, and Lessons for Pandemic Preparedness.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Pooled it
- Analysis of the spatio-temporal pattern and evolutionary trends of syphilis at township level in Xining City, Qinghai Province, China from 2008 to 2024.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and socioeconomic determinants of syphilis incidence in Xining, Northwest China: a geospatial analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Regional disparities, dynamic evolution, and convergence of China's resident health service development levels.BMC health services research · 2026Article
- Extreme Drought Events (1585-1590) and Spatiotemporal Patterns of Infectious Diseases Outbreaks in Ming Dynasty China.GeoHealth · 2025Article
- Temporal and Spatial Effects of Extreme Drought Events on Human Epidemics over Ancient China in 1784-1787 CE.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2025Article
- Risk of human leptospirosis in Colombia: spatiotemporal analysis and related hydroclimatic factors.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2024Article
- Spatiotemporal distribution and risk factors for patient and diagnostic delays among groups with tuberculous pleurisy: an analysis of 5-year surveillance data in eastern China.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
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- Spacetime modeling of mortality by infectious and parasitic diseases in Brazil: a 20-year ecological and population-based study.Therapeutic advances in infectious diseaseArticle
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundWith the accelerated global integration and the impact of climatic, ecological and social environmental changes, China will continue to face the challenge of the outbreak and spread of emerging infectious diseases and traditional ones. This study aims to explore the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China from 2007 to 2020, and to forecast the trend of it as well. Hopefully, it will provide a reference for the formulation of infectious disease prevention and control strategies.
methodsData on the incidence rates of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China from 2007 to 2020 were collected for the prediction of the spatio-temporal evolution and spatial correlation as well as the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases in China based on global spatial autocorrelation and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA).
resultsFrom 2007 to 2020, the national incidence rate of Class B notifiable infectious diseases (from 272.37 per 100,000 in 2007 to 190.35 per 100,000 in 2020) decreases year by year, and the spatial distribution shows an "east-central-west" stepwise increase. From 2007 to 2020, the spatial clustering of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases is significant and increasing year by year (Moran's I index values range from 0.189 to 0.332, p < 0.05). The forecasted incidence rates of Class B notifiable infectious diseases nationwide from 2021 to 2024 (205.26/100,000, 199.95/100,000, 194.74/100,000 and 189.62/100,000) as well as the forecasted values for most regions show a downward trend, with only some regions (Guangdong, Hunan, Hainan, Tibet, Guangxi and Guizhou) showing an increasing trend year by year.
conclusionsThe current study found that since there were significant regional disparities in the prevention and control of infectious diseases in China between 2007 and 2020, the reduction of the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases requires the joint efforts of the surrounding provinces. Besides, special attention should be paid to provinces with an increasing trend in the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases to prevent the re-emergence of certain traditional infectious diseases in a particular province or even the whole country, as well as the outbreak and spread of emerging infectious diseases.
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