ArticleNature medicine2022
Rapid evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants by analysis of genetic distance.
Article in Nature medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed, 48 citations in OpenAlex.
- Trial
- The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and the added benefit of booster doses in Hessen, Germany, during the COVID-19 pandemic: Results from a vaccinated-only study.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- A predictive model for rapid assessment of protective efficacy against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- From sequences to strategies: Early detection of new SARS-CoV-2 variants via genetic distance to reduce hospitalizations.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Considerations for assessing the feasibility of network meta-analysis of seasonal vaccines.Journal of comparative effectiveness research · 2026Article
- Integrating Genomic Data into Test-negative Designs for Estimating Lineage-specific COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Article
- Utilizing virus genomic surveillance to predict vaccine effectiveness.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and infection elicit cross-neutralizing responses against clade 3 and 4 sarbecoviruses.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Evolutionary Insight into Fatal Human Coronaviruses (hCoVs) with a Focus on Circulating SARS-CoV-2 Variants Under Monitoring (VUMs).Biomedicines · 2025Review
- Preclinical characterization of the Omicron XBB.1.5-adapted BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine.NPJ vaccines · 2024Article
- Effectiveness of the autumn 2023 COVID-19 vaccine dose in hospital-based healthcare workers: results of the VEBIS healthcare worker vaccine effectiveness cohort study, seven European countries, season 2023/24.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- Development of an ancestral DC and TLR4-inducing multi-epitope peptide vaccine against the spike protein of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 using the advanced immunoinformatics approaches.Biochemistry and biophysics reports · 2024Article
- COVID-19 vaccines: history of the pandemic's great scientific success and flawed policy implementation.Monash bioethics review · 2024Article
- Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Assessing the Burden and Cost of COVID-19 Across Variants in Commercially Insured Immunocompromised Populations in the United States: Updated Results and Trends from the Ongoing EPOCH-US Study.Advances in therapy · 2024Observational
- SARS-CoV-2 variant replacement constrains vaccine-specific viral diversification.Virus evolution · 2024Article
- Effectiveness of the booster dose of inactivated COVID-19 vaccine against Omicron BA.5 infection: a matched cohort study of adult close contacts.Respiratory research · 2023Article
- Article
- Predictive potential of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater to assess the dynamics of COVID-19 clinical outcomes and infections.The Science of the total environment · 2023Article
- Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
17 authors at 1 institution in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Timely evaluation of the protective effects of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is urgently needed to inform pandemic control planning. Based on 78 vaccine efficacy or effectiveness (VE) data from 49 studies and 1,984,241 SARS-CoV-2 sequences collected from 31 regions, we analyzed the relationship between genetic distance (GD) of circulating viruses against the vaccine strain and VE against symptomatic infection. We found that the GD of the receptor-binding domain of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is highly predictive of vaccine protection and accounted for 86.3% (P = 0.038) of the VE change in a vaccine platform-based mixed-effects model and 87.9% (P = 0.006) in a manufacturer-based model. We applied the VE-GD model to predict protection mediated by existing vaccines against new genetic variants and validated the results by published real-world and clinical trial data, finding high concordance of predicted VE with observed VE. We estimated the VE against the Delta variant to be 82.8% (95% prediction interval: 68.7-96.0) using the mRNA vaccine platform, closely matching the reported VE of 83.0% from an observational study. Among the four sublineages of Omicron, the predicted VE varied between 11.9% and 33.3%, with the highest VE predicted against BA.1 and the lowest against BA.2, using the mRNA vaccine platform. The VE-GD framework enables predictions of vaccine protection in real time and offers a rapid evaluation method against novel variants that may inform vaccine deployment and public health responses.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.