ArticleBMJ open2022
Aortic stenosis post-COVID-19: a mathematical model on waiting lists and mortality.
Article in BMJ open, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement vs. Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement for Long-Term Mortality Due to Stroke and Myocardial Infarction: A Meta-Analysis during the COVID-19 Pandemic.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2022Pooled it
- The challenge of early discharge after transcatheter aortic valve implantation.EuroIntervention : journal of EuroPCR in collaboration with the Working Group on Interventional Cardiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025Article
- Persistent Inequality in Access to Rheumatology Care for Females After the COVID-19 Pandemic.Musculoskeletal care · 2024Article
- From ether to ethernet: ensuring ethical policy in digital transformation of waitlist triage for cardiovascular procedures.NPJ digital medicine · 2024Article
- Geographical Inequality in Access to Aortic Valve Intervention in England: A Report from the UK Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Registry and National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit.Interventional cardiology (London, England) · 2024Article
- Process modelling of NHS cardiovascular waiting lists in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.BMJ open · 2023Article
- The impact of COVID-19 on a South African pediatric cardiac service: implications and insights into service capacity.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- COVID-19 and heart disease in children: What have we learned?Annals of pediatric cardiologyArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo provide estimates for how different treatment pathways for the management of severe aortic stenosis (AS) may affect National Health Service (NHS) England waiting list duration and associated mortality.
designWe constructed a mathematical model of the excess waiting list and found the closed-form analytic solution to that model. From published data, we calculated estimates for how the strategies listed under Interventions may affect the time to clear the backlog of patients waiting for treatment and the associated waiting list mortality.
settingThe NHS in England.
participantsEstimated patients with AS in England.
interventions(1) Increasing the capacity for the treatment of severe AS, (2) converting proportions of cases from surgery to transcatheter aortic valve implantation and (3) a combination of these two.
resultsIn a capacitated system, clearing the backlog by returning to pre-COVID-19 capacity is not possible. A conversion rate of 50% would clear the backlog within 666 (533-848) days with 1419 (597-2189) deaths while waiting during this time. A 20% capacity increase would require 535 (434-666) days, with an associated mortality of 1172 (466-1859). A combination of converting 40% cases and increasing capacity by 20% would clear the backlog within a year (343 (281-410) days) with 784 (292-1324) deaths while awaiting treatment.
conclusionA strategy change to the management of severe AS is required to reduce the NHS backlog and waiting list deaths during the post-COVID-19 'recovery' period. However, plausible adaptations will still incur a substantial wait to treatment and many hundreds dying while waiting.
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Registered trials
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