Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35705550›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2022

Towards interpretable, medically grounded, EMR-based risk prediction models.

Isabell Twick, Guy Zahavi, Haggai Benvenisti, Ronya Rubinstein, Michael S Woods, Haim Berkenstadt, Aviram Nissan, Enes Hosgor, Dan Assaf

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.2field-weighted citation impact, top 19% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 16 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Isabell TwickCaresyntax GmbH, Komturstraße 18A, 12099, Berlin, Germany. isabell.twick@caresyntax.com.
Guy ZahaviDepartment of Anesthesiology, The Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel.
Haggai BenvenistiDepartment of General and Oncological Surgery - Surgery C, The Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel.
Ronya RubinsteinCaresyntax GmbH, Komturstraße 18A, 12099, Berlin, Germany.
Michael S WoodsCaresyntax GmbH, Komturstraße 18A, 12099, Berlin, Germany.
Haim BerkenstadtDepartment of Anesthesiology, The Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel.
Aviram NissanDepartment of General and Oncological Surgery - Surgery C, The Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel.
Enes HosgorCaresyntax GmbH, Komturstraße 18A, 12099, Berlin, Germany.
Dan AssafDepartment of General and Oncological Surgery - Surgery C, The Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel.
Sheba Medical Center · IL

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Machine-learning based risk prediction models have the potential to improve patient outcomes by assessing risk more accurately than clinicians. Significant additional value lies in these models providing feedback about the factors that amplify an individual patient's risk. Identification of risk factors enables more informed decisions on interventions to mitigate or ameliorate modifiable factors. For these reasons, risk prediction models must be explainable and grounded on medical knowledge. Current machine learning-based risk prediction models are frequently 'black-box' models whose inner workings cannot be understood easily, making it difficult to define risk drivers. Since machine learning models follow patterns in the data rather than looking for medically relevant relationships, possible risk factors identified by these models do not necessarily translate into actionable insights for clinicians. Here, we use the example of risk assessment for postoperative complications to demonstrate how explainable and medically grounded risk prediction models can be developed. Pre- and postoperative risk prediction models are trained based on clinically relevant inputs extracted from electronic medical record data. We show that these models have similar predictive performance as models that incorporate a wider range of inputs and explain the models' decision-making process by visualizing how different model inputs and their values affect the models' predictions.

Indexed as

Electronic Health RecordsMachine LearningHumansPostoperative ComplicationsRisk AssessmentRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID35705550
PMCPMC9200841
OpenAlexW4282980740

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.