Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35702698›Full record

ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2022

A vaccination model for COVID-19 in Gauteng, South Africa.

Christina J Edholm, Benjamin Levy, Lee Spence, Folashade B Agusto, Faraimunashe Chirove, C Williams Chukwu, David Goldsman, Moatlhodi Kgosimore, Innocent Maposa, K A Jane White and 1 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Christina J EdholmDepartment of Mathematics, Scripps College, Claremont, CA, USA.
Benjamin LevyMathematics Department, Fitchburg State University, Fitchburg, MA, USA.
Lee SpenceDepartment of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA.
Folashade B AgustoDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA.
Faraimunashe ChiroveDepartment of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa.
C Williams ChukwuDepartment of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa.
David GoldsmanH. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Moatlhodi KgosimoreBiometry and Mathematics Department, Botswana University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Gaborone, Botswana.
Innocent MaposaDivision of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
K A Jane WhiteDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Bath, UK.
Suzanne LenhartDepartment of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to explore the impact of government mandates on movement restrictions and non-pharmaceutical interventions on a novel infection, and we investigate these strategies in early-stage outbreak dynamics. The rate of disease spread in South Africa varied over time as individuals changed behavior in response to the ongoing pandemic and to changing government policies. Using a system of ordinary differential equations, we model the outbreak in the province of Gauteng, assuming that several parameters vary over time. Analyzing data from the time period before vaccination gives the approximate dates of parameter changes, and those dates are linked to government policies. Unknown parameters are then estimated from available case data and used to assess the impact of each policy. Looking forward in time, possible scenarios give projections involving the implementation of two different vaccines at varying times. Our results quantify the impact of different government policies and demonstrate how vaccinations can alter infection spread.

Indexed as

34A3492D30COVID-19GautengODE epidemiology ModelParameter estimationSouth AfricaVaccination

Identifiers

PMID35702698
PMCPMC9181832

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.