ArticleJournal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology2022
Absolute Risk of Oropharyngeal Cancer After an HPV16-E6 Serology Test and Potential Implications for Screening: Results From the Human Papillomavirus Cancer Cohort Consortium.
Article in Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 44 citations in OpenAlex.
- [The role of serological (rapid) tests for the early detection of HPV-related cancers].Dermatologie (Heidelberg, Germany) · 2026Pooled it
- Evidence-based guideline diagnosis, treatment, prevention and aftercare of oropharyngeal and hypopharyngeal carcinoma.German medical science : GMS e-journal · 2025Guideline
- Broad targeting of HPV E proteins by intratumoral and systemic B cell responses in HPV+ head and neck cancer.Oncoimmunology · 2026Article
- HPV Serology and Circulating Viral DNA for Detection, Genotyping, and Measurement of Disease Burden in Oropharyngeal Cancer.International journal of cancer · 2026Article
- HPV-Associated Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Persistent Oral High-Risk HPV Detection: A Narrative Review of Longitudinal Assessment, Diagnostic Evaluation, and Surveillance.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026Review
- Beyond oncogenesis: the unexplored benefits of viruses in cancer immunity.Nature reviews. Cancer · 2026Review
- Article
- Lymphocyte count and risk of chronic lymphocytic leukemia.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2026Article
- Closing the Gap: HPV Vaccination and Head and Neck Cancer Prevention.Current oncology reports · 2026Review
- Reconsidering serological strategies for HPV-driven oropharyngeal cancer screening.EBioMedicine · 2026Article
- Diagnostic Performance of the PrevoCheck for the Detection of Human Papillomavirus 16-Driven Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma.Journal of oral pathology & medicine : official publication of the International Association of Oral Pathologists and the American Academy of Oral Pathology · 2026Article
- Evaluation of an HPV16-L1 antibody rapid test for oropharyngeal cancer diagnosis: diagnostic accuracy and challenges in real-world settings.EBioMedicine · 2026Article
- Salivary and Serum Liquid Biopsy Biomarkers for HPV-Associated Oral and Oropharyngeal Cancer: A Narrative Review.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Review
- Direct Comparison of Alternative Blood-Based Approaches for Early Detection and Diagnosis of HPV-Associated Head and Neck Cancers.Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research · 2025Article
- Promises and pitfalls of multi-cancer early detection using liquid biopsy tests.Nature reviews. Clinical oncology · 2025Review
- Screening for oropharyngeal cancer: the time is now.Expert review of molecular diagnostics · 2025Article
- Natural history of HPV-16 E6 serology among cancer-free men in a multicenter longitudinal cohort study.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2025Article
- [Epidemiology and prevention of oropharyngeal cancer : Summary of the new German S3 guideline].HNO · 2025Article
- Development of a multiplexed lateral flow assay for the serologic detection of HPV-associated head and neck cancer.Cancer biomarkers : section A of Disease markers · 2025Article
- Circulating tumor HPV DNA, antibodies to HPV16 early proteins, and oral HPV16 DNA as biomarkers for HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer screening.Cancer biomarkers : section A of Disease markers · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
34 authors at 14 institutions in 9 countries.
Funding
Abstract
purposeSeropositivity for the HPV16-E6 oncoprotein is a promising marker for early detection of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), but the absolute risk of OPC after a positive or negative test is unknown.
methodsWe constructed an OPC risk prediction model that integrates (1) relative odds of OPC for HPV16-E6 serostatus and cigarette smoking from the human papillomavirus (HPV) Cancer Cohort Consortium (HPVC3), (2) US population risk factor data from the National Health Interview Survey, and (3) US sex-specific population rates of OPC and mortality.
resultsThe nine HPVC3 cohorts included 365 participants with OPC with up to 10 years between blood draw and diagnosis and 5,794 controls. The estimated 10-year OPC risk for HPV16-E6 seropositive males at age 50 years was 17.4% (95% CI, 12.4 to 28.6) and at age 60 years was 27.1% (95% CI, 19.2 to 45.4). Corresponding 5-year risk estimates were 7.3% and 14.4%, respectively. For HPV16-E6 seropositive females, 10-year risk estimates were 3.6% (95% CI, 2.5 to 5.9) at age 50 years and 5.5% (95% CI, 3.8 to 9.2) at age 60 years and 5-year risk estimates were 1.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Over 30 years, after a seropositive result at age 50 years, an estimated 49.9% of males and 13.3% of females would develop OPC. By contrast, 10-year risks among HPV16-E6 seronegative people were very low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.25% depending on age, sex, and smoking status.
conclusionWe estimate that a substantial proportion of HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals will develop OPC, with 10-year risks of 17%-27% for males and 4%-6% for females age 50-60 years in the United States. This high level of risk may warrant periodic, minimally invasive surveillance after a positive HPV16-E6 serology test, particularly for males in high-incidence regions. However, an appropriate clinical protocol for surveillance remains to be established.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.