Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35696558›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2022

Quantifying the importance and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas.

Alberto Aleta, David Martín-Corral, Michiel A Bakker, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Marco Ajelli, Maria Litvinova, Matteo Chinazzi, Natalie E Dean, M Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M Longini and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
32citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

32 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  16. Heterogeneous changes in mobility in response to the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 outbreak in Shanghai.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Alberto AletaISI Foundation, 10126 Turin, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-1192-8707
David Martín-CorralDepartamento de Matemáticas, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 28911 Leganés, Spain.ORCID 0000-0001-8896-0599
Michiel A BakkerConnection Science, Institute for Data Science and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.
Ana Pastore Y PionttiLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115.
Marco AjelliLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115.ORCID 0000-0003-1753-4749
Maria LitvinovaLaboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN 47405.ORCID 0000-0001-6393-1943
Matteo ChinazziLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115.ORCID 0000-0002-5955-1929
Natalie E DeanDepartment of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.
M Elizabeth HalloranBiostatistics, Bioinformatics, and Epidemiology Program, Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109.ORCID 0000-0002-3127-1757
Ira M LonginiDepartment of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.
Alex PentlandConnection Science, Institute for Data Science and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.ORCID 0000-0002-8053-9983
Alessandro VespignaniISI Foundation, 10126 Turin, Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-3419-4205
Yamir MorenoISI Foundation, 10126 Turin, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-0895-1893
Esteban MoroDepartamento de Matemáticas, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 28911 Leganés, Spain.ORCID 0000-0003-2894-1024

Funding

RFA-IP-20-003, FluMod - Center for the Multiscale Modeling of Pandemic and seasonal Flu Prevention and ControlU01IP001137 · IP · NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY · PI VESPIGNANI, ALESSANDRO · 2020 to 2024
$3.4M
Mathematical and Statistical Methods for the Control of Global Infectious Disease ThreatsR56AI148284 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA · PI HALLORAN, M ELIZABETH, LONGINI, IRA M · 2020 to 2020
$802k
ACL HHS U01IP001137HHS | OASH | Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (ODPHP) CDC-HH-6U01IP001137-01NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP001137NIAID NIH HHS R56 AI148284
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Detailed characterization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission across different settings can help design less disruptive interventions. We used real-time, privacy-enhanced mobility data in the New York City, NY and Seattle, WA metropolitan areas to build a detailed agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 infection to estimate the where, when, and magnitude of transmission events during the pandemic's first wave. We estimate that only 18% of individuals produce most infections (80%), with about 10% of events that can be considered superspreading events (SSEs). Although mass gatherings present an important risk for SSEs, we estimate that the bulk of transmission occurred in smaller events in settings like workplaces, grocery stores, or food venues. The places most important for transmission change during the pandemic and are different across cities, signaling the large underlying behavioral component underneath them. Our modeling complements case studies and epidemiological data and indicates that real-time tracking of transmission events could help evaluate and define targeted mitigation policies.

Indexed as

Contact TracingCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2HumansNew York CityPandemicsPopulation DynamicsTime FactorsWashingtonCOVID-19locationmobilitysuperspreading event

Identifiers

PMID35696558
PMCPMC9245708

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.