ArticleStochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal2022
Effects of rainfall on human leptospirosis in Thailand: evidence of multi-province study using distributed lag non-linear model.
Article in Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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9 citing papers in PubMed, 18 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pathogenic Leptospira species identified in dogs and cats during neutering in Thailand.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- DNA metabarcoding analysis revealed a silent prevalence of environmental pathogenicOne health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- Sea surface temperature modulates El Niño and La Niña driven leptospirosis patterns: Evidence from causal machine learning in Colombia.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Flood-associated disease outbreaks and transmission in Southeast Asia.Frontiers in microbiology · 2025Review
- A systematic survey of environmental DNA in Palau's lakes and waterfalls reveals an increase inOne health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2024Article
- Geographical factors and air raid alarms influence leptospirosis epidemiology in Ukraine (2018-2023).One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2024Article
- Risk of human leptospirosis in Colombia: spatiotemporal analysis and related hydroclimatic factors.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2024Article
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Abstract
Leptospirosis is a zoonotic bacterial disease that remains an important public health problem, especially in tropical developing countries. Many previous studies in Thailand have revealed the outbreak of human leptospirosis after heavy rainfall, but research determining its quantitative risks associated with rainfall, especially at the national level, remains limited. This study aims to examine the association between rainfall and human leptospirosis across 60 provinces of Thailand. A quasi-Poisson regression framework combined with the distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate province-specific association between rainfall and human leptospirosis, adjusting for potential confounders. Province-specific estimates were then pooled to derive regional and national estimates using random-effect meta-analysis. The highest risk of leptospirosis associated with rainfall at national level was observed at the same month (lag 0). Using 0 cm/month of rainfall as a reference, the relative risks of leptospirosis associated with heavy (90th percentile), very heavy (95th percentile), and extremely heavy (99th percentile) rainfall at the national level were 1.0994 (95% CI 0.9747, 1.2401), 1.1428 (95% CI 1.0154, 1.2862), and 1.1848 (95% CI 1.0494, 1.3378), respectively. The highest risk of human leptospirosis associated with rainfall was observed in the northern and north-eastern regions. Specifically, the relative risks of leptospirosis associated with extremely heavy rainfall in northern and north-eastern regions were 1.2362 (95% CI 0.9110, 1.6775) and 1.2046 (95% CI 0.9728, 1.4918), respectively. Increasing rainfall was associated with increased risks of leptospirosis, especially in the northern and northeastern regions of Thailand. This finding could be used for precautionary warnings against heavy rainfall. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00477-022-02250-x.
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