ArticleClimatic change2022
The risks from climate change to sovereign debt.
Article in Climatic change, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Private investments in climate change adaptation are increasing in Europe, although sectoral differences remain.Communications earth & environment · 2025Article
- How an economic and financial perspective could guide transformational adaptation to sea level rise.npj climate action · 2025Review
- The asymmetric effects of climate risk on higher-moment connectedness among carbon, energy and metals markets.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Financial Crises and Climate Change.Comparative economic studies · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
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Abstract
The exposure of sovereigns to climate risks is priced and can affect credit ratings and debt servicing costs. I argue that the climate risks to fiscal stability are not receiving adequate attention and discuss how to remedy the situation. After providing evidence of divergent climate risks to advanced economies, I describe the transmission channels from climate change to public finance. Then, I suggest how integrated assessment models (IAMs) can be linked with stochastic debt sustainability analysis (DSA) to inform our understanding of climate risks to sovereign debt dynamics and assess the available fiscal space to finance climate policies. I argue for adopting the narrative scenario architecture developed within the IPCC to bring structure and transparency to the analysis. The analysis is complicated by deep uncertainty -risks, ambiguity, and mis-specifications- of climate change. Using scenario trees, narrative scenarios, and ensembles of models, respectively, we can deal with these three challenges. I illustrate using two prominent IAMs to generate the debt dynamics of a high-debt country under climate risks to economic growth and find adverse effects from as early as 2030. I conclude with the policy implications for fiscal stability authorities. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-022-03373-4.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.