ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2022
A New Compartment Model of COVID-19 Transmission: The Broken-Link Model.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Quantifying the Regional Disproportionality of COVID-19 Spread: Modeling Study.JMIR formative research · 2025Article
- Mathematical Modelling of Virus Spreading in COVID-19.Viruses · 2023Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
We propose a new compartment model of COVID-19 spread, the broken-link model, which includes the effect from unconnected infectious links of the transmission. The traditional SIR-type epidemic models are widely used to analyze the spread status, and the models show the exponential growth of the number of infected people. However, even in the early stage of the spread, it is proven by the actual data that the exponential growth did not occur all over the world. We presume this is caused by the suppression of secondary and higher-order transmissions of COVID-19. We find that the proposed broken-link model quantitatively describes the mechanism of this suppression, which leads to the shape of epicurves of confirmed cases are governed by the probability of unconnected infectious links, and the magnitudes of the cases are proportional to expR0 in each infectious surge generated by a virus of the basic reproduction number R0, and is consistent with the actual data.
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