ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2022
How Seasonality and Control Measures Jointly Determine the Multistage Waves of the COVID-19 Epidemic: A Modelling Study and Implications.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on erectile function in Chinese CP/CPPS patients.Asian journal of andrology · 2023Article
- Safety and Immunogenicity of the BNT162b2 Vaccine Coadministered with Seasonal Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Adults.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2023Article
- A Multi-SCALE Community Network-Based SEIQR Model to Evaluate the Dynamic NPIs of COVID-19.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Transmission Characteristics and Predictive Model for Recent Epidemic Waves of COVID-19 Associated With OMICRON Variant in Major Cities in China.International journal of public health · 2022Article
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Abstract
The current novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a multistage epidemic consisting of multiple rounds of alternating outbreak and containment periods that cannot be modeled with a conventional single-stage Suspected-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model. Seasonality and control measures could be the two most important driving factors of the multistage epidemic. Our goal is to formulate and incorporate the influences of seasonality and control measures into an epidemic model and interpret how these two factors interact to shape the multistage epidemic curves. New confirmed cases will be collected daily from seven Northern Hemisphere countries and five Southern Hemisphere countries from March 2020 to March 2021 to fit and validate the modified model. Results show that COVID-19 is a seasonal epidemic and that epidemic curves can be clearly distinguished in the two hemispheres. Different levels of control measures between different countries during different seasonal periods have different influences on epidemic transmission. Seasonality alone cannot cause the baseline reproduction number
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