ArticleInjury epidemiology2022
Would restricting firearm purchases due to alcohol- and drug-related misdemeanor offenses reduce firearm homicide and suicide? An agent-based simulation.
Article in Injury epidemiology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- Dynamic Simulation Models of Suicide and Suicide-Related Behaviors: Systematic Review.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Pooled it
- How Do States Regulate the Intersection of Alcohol and Firearms? A 50-State Assessment of Alcohol-Related Firearm Laws, 2010-2023.American journal of preventive medicine · 2026Article
- Forecasting the future of American mass shootings with Bayesian agent-based model calibration.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Public support for gun restrictions in public places that serve alcohol: the cost of enforcement matters.Health affairs scholar · 2026Article
- A systematic review of operational research modelling for alcohol consumption and its consequences.Health systems (Basingstoke, England) · 2026Review
- Improving health and housing outcomes through a simulation and economic model: an evidence-based protocol of a group model building approach to develop an agent-based model.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Assessing Links Between Alcohol Exposure and Firearm Violence: A Scoping Review Update.Alcohol research : current reviews · 2025Article
- Simulation Models for Suicide Prevention: A Survey of the State-of-the-Art.Computers (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSubstance-related interactions with the criminal justice system are a potential touchpoint to identify people at risk for firearm violence. We used an agent-based model to simulate the change in firearm violence after disqualifying people from owning a firearm given prior alcohol- and drug-related misdemeanors.
methodsWe created a population of 800,000 agents reflecting a 15% sample of the adult New York City population.
resultsDisqualification from purchasing firearms for 5 years after an alcohol-related misdemeanor conviction reduced population-level rates of firearm homicide by 1.0% [95% CI 0.4-1.6%] and suicide by 3.0% [95% CI 1.9-4.0%]. Disqualification based on a drug-related misdemeanor conviction reduced homicide by 1.6% [95% CI 1.1-2.2%] and suicide by 4.6% [95% CI 3.4-5.8%]. Reductions were generally 2 to 8 times larger for agents meeting the disqualification criteria.
conclusionsDenying firearm access based on a history of drug and alcohol misdemeanors may reduce firearm violence among the high-risk group. Enactment of substance use-related firearms denial criteria needs to be balanced against concerns about introducing new sources of disenfranchisement among already vulnerable populations.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.