ArticleBMC infectious diseases2022
Using outbreak data to estimate the dynamic COVID-19 landscape in Eastern Africa.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic presents a serious health threat to African countries and the livelihoods of its people. To mitigate the impact of this disease, intervention measures including self-isolation, schools and border closures were implemented to varying degrees of success. Moreover, there are a limited number of empirical studies on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control COVID-19. In this study, we considered two models to inform policy decisions about pandemic planning and the implementation of NPIs based on case-death-recovery counts.
methodsWe applied an extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model, incorporating quarantine, antibody and vaccination compartments, to time series data in order to assess the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Additionally, we adopted the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to investigate the robustness of the eSIR model based on case-death-recovery counts and the reproductive number (R
resultsWe observed an exponential trend of the number of active cases of COVID-19 since March 02 2020, with the pandemic peak occurring around August 2021. The estimated mean R
conclusionThe current NPIs can delay the pandemic pea and effectively reduce further spread of COVID-19 and should therefore be strengthened. The observed reduction in R
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