ArticleCommunications biology2022
Spotted lanternfly predicted to establish in California by 2033 without preventative management.
Article in Communications biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed.
- Hemiptera diversity using the mtDNA COI barcode in almond orchards in the Northern San Joaquin Valley of California.Journal of economic entomology · 2026Article
- AI-LyD: An AI-Driven System Approach to Combatting Spotted Lanternfly Proliferation Through Behavioral Analysis.Insects · 2026Article
- Preventing spread of the invasive spotted lanternfly via texture-based automated egg detection.Frontiers in insect science · 2026Article
- Article
- Real-Time Integrative Mapping of the Phenology and Climatic Suitability for the Spotted Lanternfly,Insects · 2025Article
- Diploid chromosome-level genome assembly and annotation for Lycorma delicatula.Scientific data · 2025Article
- A phylogenetic epidemiology approach to predicting the establishment of multi-host plant pests.Communications biology · 2025Article
- Commodity risk assessment of debarked conifer wood chips fumigated with sulfuryl fluoride from the US.EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2025Article
- InsectNet: Real-time identification of insects using an end-to-end machine learning pipeline.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Is Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) a blooming threat to citrus?Journal of economic entomology · 2024Article
- Globally suitable areas forEcology and evolution · 2024Article
- Experimental evidence supports the ability of spotted lanternfly to hitchhike on vehicle exteriors as a mechanism for anthropogenic dispersal.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Editorial: Forest insect invasions - risk mapping approaches and applications.Frontiers in insect science · 2024Article
- Modeling human activity-related spread of the spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) in the US.PloS one · 2024Article
- Article
- Article
- SAFARIS: a spatial analytic framework for pest forecast systems.Frontiers in insect science · 2023Article
- Editorial: Focus on spotted lanternfly.Frontiers in insect science · 2023Article
- The potential climatic range of spotted lanternfly may be broader than previously predicted.Frontiers in insect science · 2023Article
- Persistence and distribution of dinotefuran in tree of heaven.Frontiers in insect science · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Models that are both spatially and temporally dynamic are needed to forecast where and when non-native pests and pathogens are likely to spread, to provide advance information for natural resource managers. The potential US range of the invasive spotted lanternfly (SLF, Lycorma delicatula) has been modeled, but until now, when it could reach the West Coast's multi-billion-dollar fruit industry has been unknown. We used process-based modeling to forecast the spread of SLF assuming no treatments to control populations occur. We found that SLF has a low probability of first reaching the grape-producing counties of California by 2027 and a high probability by 2033. Our study demonstrates the importance of spatio-temporal modeling for predicting the spread of invasive species to serve as an early alert for growers and other decision makers to prepare for impending risks of SLF invasion. It also provides a baseline for comparing future control options.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.