ArticleRevista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical2022
Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil.
Article in Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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12 citing papers in PubMed, 20 citations in OpenAlex.
- Modeling the impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Argentina between 2018 and 2024.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Effect of sea surface temperature in El Niño regions on dengue dynamics in Colombia: Evidence from causal machine learning.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Dengue incidence and its relationship with El Niño oceanic index, as a sensitive variable to anticipate outbreaks in the Colombian Caribbean regionBiomedica : revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud · 2025Article
- The global, regional, and national burden trends of dengue among adults aged 20-49 from 1990 to 2021.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Unraveling regional variability in Dengue outbreaks in Brazil: leveraging the Moving Epidemics Method (MEM) and climate data to optimize vector control strategies.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and seasonal weather conditions on Aedes aegypti infestation in the State of São Paulo (Brazil): A Bayesian spatio-temporal study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Article
- Analysis of the interrelationship between precipitation and confirmed dengue cases in the city of Recife (Brazil) covering climate and public health information.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- The global incidence and trends of three common flavivirus infections (Dengue, yellow fever, and Zika) from 2011 to 2021.Frontiers in microbiology · 2024Article
- Disentangling local and global climate drivers in the population dynamics of mosquito-borne infections.Science advances · 2023Article
- El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on local weather, arboviral diseases, and dynamics of managed and unmanaged populations of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Puerto Rico.Journal of medical entomology · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal and meteorological relationships in dengue transmission in the Dominican Republic, 2015-2019.Tropical medicine and health · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThis research addresses two questions: (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchronicity.
methodsWavelet analysis and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables and their coherence with dengue incidence.
resultsOur results showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle.
conclusionENSO may have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with El Niño years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized.
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