Towards a concrete landscape: Assessing the efficiency of land consumption in the Greater Accra Region, Ghana.

Most existing studies on land consumption have used a reactive approach to assess the phenomenon. However, for evidence-based policies, an initiative-taking forecast has been touted to be more appropriate. This study, therefore, assessed current trends and efficiency of land consumption in the Greater Accra Region from 1987 to 2017, and predicted a 30-year future land consumption in a "business-as-usual" scenario. The study adopted maximum likelihood image classification techniques and "combinatorial or" to model land cover change for Greater Accra from 1987 to 2017 while the UN-Habitat land efficiency index was employed to model efficiency of land consumption. In addition, Leo-Breiman Forest based regression, was used to model a future land cover by using the 30 years land cover change as a dependant variable and a series of natural and anthropogenic factors as independent variables. Results showed that artificial surfaces increased from 4.2% to 33.1%, with an annual growth rate of 22.1% in 30 years. Land consumption was highly inefficient as only 4.2% of the region had a good proportion of population per land area. Factors which influenced artificial surface growth were population, distance from water bodies, poverty index, distance from sacred groves, proportion of agriculture population with a small margin of influence from soil and geology type. Landscape prediction showed that artificial surfaces will increase to 92.6% as more places are coated with concrete. The high rate of land inefficiency provides an opportunity for re-zoning by the Land Use and Spatial Planning Authority of Ghana to accommodate the growing population.