ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2022
COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 82 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
82 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Seropersistence of SII-ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (COVID-19 vaccine): 6-month follow-up of a randomized, controlled, observer-blind, phase 2/3 immuno-bridging study in Indian adults.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Trial
- Article
- Comparative evaluation of behavioral epidemic models using COVID-19 data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Beyond the Pandemic Era: Recent Advances and Efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines Against Emerging Variants of Concern.Vaccines · 2025Review
- SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in New York City during March 2020-August 2023.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- A data-driven approach to study temporal characteristics of COVID-19 infection and death Time Series for twelve countries across six continents.BMC medical research methodology · 2025Article
- Decoding the cross-immune pressure: Dengue's role in SARS-CoV-2 evolution.Computational and structural biotechnology journal · 2025Article
- SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Mozambique and Zimbabwe during the first 3 years of the pandemic.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Systematic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 reveals dynamics of variant mutagenesis and transmission in a large urban population.Nature communications · 2024Article
- BharatSim: An agent-based modelling framework for India.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Persistent pulmonary impairment after 2 years of COVID-19 infection: An observational study.Lung India : official organ of Indian Chest Society · 2024Article
- The optimal spatially-dependent control measures to effectively and economically eliminate emerging infectious diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Effects of mobility, immunity and vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Dominican Republic: a modelling study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2024Article
- Monitoring of adaptive immune responses in healthcare workers who received a Coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine booster dose.Health science reports · 2024Article
- COVID-19 pandemic - Cocktail of variants, a study from Northern India.Journal of family medicine and primary care · 2024Article
- Evaluation of the exit screening policy among travelers arriving from Asian and pacific nations.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Reconciling the efficacy and effectiveness of masking on epidemic outcomes.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Transmission chains of the first local outbreak cause by Delta VariantB.1.617.2 COVID-19 in Guangzhou, Southern China.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Reconstructing the COVID-19 incidence in India using airport screening data in Japan.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
22 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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2 authors.
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Abstract
The Delta variant is a major SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern first identified in India. To better understand COVID-19 pandemic dynamics and Delta, we use multiple datasets and model-inference to reconstruct COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India during March 2020-June 2021. We further use the large discrepancy in one- and two-dose vaccination coverage in India (53% versus 23% by end of October 2021) to examine the impact of vaccination and whether prior non-Delta infection can boost vaccine effectiveness (VE). We estimate that Delta escaped immunity in 34.6% (95% CI: 0-64.2%) of individuals with prior wild-type infection and was 57.0% (95% CI: 37.9-75.6%) more infectious than wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Models assuming higher VE among non-Delta infection recoverees, particularly after the first dose, generated more accurate predictions than those assuming no such increases (best-performing VE setting: 90/95% versus 30/67% baseline for the first/second dose). Counterfactual modelling indicates that high vaccination coverage for first vaccine dose in India combined with the boosting of VE among recoverees averted around 60% of infections during July-mid-October 2021. These findings provide support to prioritizing first-dose vaccination in regions with high underlying infection rates, given continued vaccine shortages and new variant emergence.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.