ArticleNature communications2022
Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories.
Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 52 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
52 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 116 citations in OpenAlex.
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions in containing COVID-19 pandemic after the roll-out of coronavirus vaccines: a systematic review.BMC public health · 2024Pooled it
- Real-world effectiveness and factors associated with effectiveness of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccines: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.BMC medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Past SARS-CoV-2 infection protection against re-infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Lancet (London, England) · 2023Pooled it
- Article
- A modeling study on the critical sensitivity of epidemic peaks and final size to marginal changes in non-pharmaceutical intervention efficacy.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Mental health in adults aged 50+ since the COVID-19 pandemic: Are we (all) back to 'normal'? evidence from England.Journal of affective disorders reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Optimal pandemic control strategies and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions in the United States.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- Machine learning insights on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Nigeria.International health · 2025Article
- Excess Mortality and Containment Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence From 34 Countries.American journal of public health · 2025Article
- European countries policy responses against SARS-Cov-2 in the context of vaccinations.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Assessing COVID-19 Mortality in Serbia's Capital: Model-Based Analysis of Excess Deaths.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2025Article
- Latent class analysis identifies risk groups to model the expected benefits of SARS-CoV-2 interventions among university students.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Mapping seasonal human mobility across Africa using mobile phone location history and geospatial data.Research square · 2025Article
- The strategy to control the outbreak of an emerging respiratory infectious disease in a simulated Chinese megacity.Heliyon · 2025Article
- Article
- Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions.Npj complexity · 2025Article
- A risk science perspective on vaccines.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2024Article
- Long-term effectiveness of an ultra-rapid rollout vaccination campaign with BNT162b2 on the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection.iScience · 2024Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
16 authors at 7 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination of both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built a Bayesian inference model to assess the changing effect of NPIs and vaccination on reducing COVID-19 transmission, based on a large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and climate factors in Europe from August 2020 to October 2021. We found that (1) the combined effect of NPIs and vaccination resulted in a 53% (95% confidence interval: 42-62%) reduction in reproduction number by October 2021, whereas NPIs and vaccination reduced the transmission by 35% and 38%, respectively; (2) compared with vaccination, the change of NPI effect was less sensitive to emerging variants; (3) the relative effect of NPIs declined 12% from May 2021 due to a lower stringency and the introduction of vaccination strategies. Our results demonstrate that NPIs were complementary to vaccination in an effort to reduce COVID-19 transmission, and the relaxation of NPIs might depend on vaccination rates, control targets, and vaccine effectiveness concerning extant and emerging variants.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.