ArticlePLoS computational biology2022
Addressing delayed case reporting in infectious disease forecast modeling.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Quantifying, Understanding, and Correcting for Delays in Routine Dengue Case Reporting in the Americas.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2026Article
- Leveraging synthetic and genetic data to improve epidemic forecasting.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Dengue epidemiology and transmission intensity across Panama during 2000-2024: a modelling study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Article
- Spatiotemporal modeling of regional short-term pertussis transmission risk using a propagation-enhanced prediction framework.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Article
- Optimal algorithms for controlling infectious diseases in real time using noisy infection data.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Responsive population-based cohorts as platforms for characterising pathogen- and population-level infection dynamics for epidemic prevention, preparedness and response.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- Real-time monitoring of excess mortality under a new endemic regime.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- Post-processing and weighted combination of infectious disease nowcasts.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- A two-variant model of SARS-COV-2 transmission: estimating the characteristics of a newly emerging strain.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Perspectives and challenges in developing and implementing integrated dengue surveillance tools and technology in Thailand: a qualitative study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Weekly Forecasting of Yellow Fever Occurrence and Incidence via Eco-Meteorological Dynamics.GeoHealth · 2023Article
- Quantifying the impact of time-delayed reporting and supportive care in measles outbreak: A simulation approach for Texas, USA.Science progressArticle
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting, however, forecasting models may often underestimate the current and future disease burden. In this paper, we propose a general framework for addressing reporting delay in disease forecasting efforts with the goal of improving forecasts. We propose strategies for leveraging either historical data on case reporting or external internet-based data to estimate the amount of reporting error. We then describe several approaches for adapting general forecasting pipelines to account for under- or over-reporting of cases. We apply these methods to address reporting delay in data on dengue fever cases in Puerto Rico from 1990 to 2009 and to reports of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States between 2010 and 2019. Through a simulation study, we compare method performance and evaluate robustness to assumption violations. Our results show that forecasting accuracy and prediction coverage almost always increase when correction methods are implemented to address reporting delay. Some of these methods required knowledge about the reporting error or high quality external data, which may not always be available. Provided alternatives include excluding recently-reported data and performing sensitivity analysis. This work provides intuition and guidance for handling delay in disease case reporting and may serve as a useful resource to inform practical infectious disease forecasting efforts.
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Registered trials
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