ArticleHealth systems (Basingstoke, England)2022
Modelling changes in healthcare demand through geographic data extrapolation.
Article in Health systems (Basingstoke, England), 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Healthcare services gap analysis: a supply capture and demand forecast modelling, Dubai 2018-2030.BMC health services research · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Stay Well Plans are a new programme of care offered to frail and elderly people in Newport. In 2016 a roll out the programme to be offered in all five counties serviced by Aneurin Bevan University Health Board was planned. This paper presents the data analysis and modelling used to determine the programme's effects on the demand of the wider system, and the effects of a Gwent-wide roll out. We extrapolate information from data from a geographical subset of the model domain to a larger geographical area, adjusting for population sizes, deprivation, and distances to healthcare facilities. These parametrise a Markov model and Monte Carlo simulation to predict changes in demand due to different levels of roll out. We conclude that a programme roll out may result in a large reduction on demand at residential care, however at the expense of an increase in demand at community care services.
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Registered trials
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