ArticleChaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)2022
Propagation dynamics and control policies of COVID-19 pandemic at early stages: Implications on future resurgence response.
Article in Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.), 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The spreading of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has gravely impacted the world in the last year and a half. Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of how it spreads at the early stage and the effectiveness of a governments' immediate response helps our society prepare for future COVID-19 waves or the next pandemic and contain it before the spreading gets out of control. In this article, a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model is used to model the city-to-city spreading patterns of the disease at the early stage of its emergence in China (from December 2019 to February 2020). Publicly available reported case numbers in 312 Chinese cities and between-city mobility data are leveraged to estimate key epidemiological characteristics, such as the transmission rate and the number of infectious people for each city. It is discovered that during any given time period, there are always only a few cities that are responsible for spreading the disease to other cities. We term these few cities as transmission centers. The spatial and temporal changes in transmission centers demonstrate predictable patterns. Moreover, rigorously designed experiments show that in controlling the disease spread in a city, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented at transmission centers are more effective than the NPI implemented in the city itself. These findings have implications on the control of an infectious disease at the early stage of its spreading: implementing NPIs at transmission centers at early stages is effective in controlling the spread of infectious diseases.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.