ArticleFrontiers in public health2022
Early and Subsequent Epidemic Characteristics of COVID-19 and Their Impact on the Epidemic Size in Ethiopia.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Absorbing the shock: the role of lower-level health facilities in immunization resilience in Sidama, Ethiopia during COVID-19 pandemic.BMC health services research · 2026Article
- Clinical profiles and mortality predictors of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Ethiopia.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- SARS-CoV-2 variant typing using real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction-based assays in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.IJID regions · 2024Article
- The Inverted U-Shaped Relationship Between Socio-Economic Status and Infections During the COVID-19 Pandemic.GeoHealth · 2024Article
- A standardised differential privacy framework for epidemiological modeling with mobile phone data.PLOS digital health · 2023Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
In Ethiopia, multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemic have been observed. So far, no studies have investigated the characteristics of the waves of epidemic waves in the country. Identifying the epidemic trend in Ethiopia will inform future prevention and control of COVID-19. This study aims to identify the early indicators and the characteristics of multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemics and their impact on the overall epidemic size in Ethiopia. We employed the Jointpoint software to identify key epidemic characteristics in the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic and a simple logistic growth model to identify epidemic characteristics of its subsequent waves. Among the first 100 reported cases in Ethiopia, we identified a slow-growing phase (0.37 [CI: 0.10-0.78] cases/day), which was followed by a fast-growing phase (1.18 [0.50-2.00] cases/day). The average turning point from slow to fast-growing phase was at 18 days after first reported. We identified two subsequent waves of COVID-19 in Ethiopia during 03/2020-04/2021. We estimated the number of COVID-19 cases that occurred during the second wave (157,064 cases) was >2 times more than the first (60,016 cases). The second wave's duration was longer than the first (116 vs. 96 days). As of April 30th, 2021, the overall epidemic size in Ethiopia was 794/100,000, ranging from 1,669/100,000 in the Harari region to 40/100,000 in the Somali region. The epidemic size was significantly and positively correlated with the day of the phase turning point (r = 0.750,
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