ArticleMalaria journal2022
Malaria time series in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: epidemiological scenario and a two-year prediction model.
Article in Malaria journal, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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18 citing papers in PubMed, 26 citations in OpenAlex.
- Economic burden of malaria in the Brazilian Amazon from a societal perspective.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Updating the frequency of CCR5Δ32 in Brazil: Descriptive analysis of malaria cases and controls from Acre State, Amazon region.Genetics and molecular biology · 2026Article
- New Evidence of TLR4 and TLR9 Variants Influencing Parasitaemia and Symptoms of Plasmodium vivax Infection.International journal of immunogenetics · 2025Article
- Towards Malaria Elimination: A Nationwide Case-Control Study to Assess Risk Factors for Severe Malaria-Related Deaths in Brazil.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2025Article
- Factors associated with hospitalizations due to severe malaria in the non-endemic Brazilian region: a case-control study in the extra-Amazon Region from 2011 to 2019.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Article
- Malaria mortality in Brazil: an age-period cohort study.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Malaria Mortality in Brazil: Age-Period-Cohort Effects, Sociodemographic Factors, and Sustainable Development Indicators.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
- Imported malaria in Cabo Verde (2010-2024): Risks to post-elimination stability.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Clinical and epidemiological profiles of confirmed malaria cases in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, from 2001 to 2022.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2025Observational
- Towards malaria elimination: a case-control study to assess associated factors to malaria relapses in the extra-Amazon Region of Brazil from 2008 to 2019.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- Sociodemographic aspects, time series and high-risk clusters of malaria in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: a 22-year study.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2024Article
- Spatiotemporal analysis of within-country imported malaria in Brazilian municipalities, 2004-2022.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Brazil towards malaria elimination: A time-series analysis of imported cases from 2007 to 2022.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Exploring the influence of environmental indicators and forecasting influenza incidence using ARIMAX models.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Malaria in areas under mining activity in the Amazon: A review.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2024Review
- Record Linkage for Malaria Deaths Data Recovery and Surveillance in Brazil.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Optimizing Forecasted Activity Notifications with Reinforcement Learning.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundIn Brazil, malaria is caused mainly by the Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum species. Its transmission occurs in endemic and non-endemic areas. Malaria geography in Brazil has retracted and is now concentrated in the North region. The Brazilian Amazon region accounts for 99% of Brazil's cases. Brazil's extra-Amazon region has a high frequency of imported cases and in 2019 presented a mortality rate 123 times higher than the Amazon region. Extra-Amazon cases present risks of reintroduction. This study aims to characterize the epidemiological scenario for malaria in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil from 2011 to 2020 with a two-year forecast.
methodsTime-series study with description of malaria cases and deaths registered in Brazilian extra-Amazon region from 2011 to 2020. Public data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan) and the Mortality Information System (SIM) were used. Descriptive analysis, incidence, and notification rates were calculated. Flow charts analysed the flux between Places of Probable Infection (PI) and places of notification. The prediction model utilized a multiplicative Holt-winters model for trend and seasonality components.
resultsA total of 6849 cases were registered. Cases were predominantly white males with 9 to 11 years of education, mostly between 30 and 39 years old. Imported cases accounted for 78.9% of cases. Most frequent occupations for imported cases are related to travelling and tourism activities. Among autochthonous cases, there is a higher frequency of agriculture and domestic economic activities. In the period there were 118 deaths due to malaria, of which 34.7% were caused by P. falciparum infections and 48.3% were not specified. The most intense flows of imported cases are from Amazonas and Rondônia to São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Paraná. The prediction estimates around 611 cases for each of the following two years.
conclusionThe time series allows a vast epidemiological visualization with a short-term prediction analysis that supports public health planning. Government actions need to be better directed in the extra-Amazon region so the objective of eliminating malaria in Brazil is achieved. Carrying out quality assessments for information systems and qualifying personnel is advisable. Malaria outside the Amazon region is mainly due to imported cases and delay in diagnosis is associated with a higher fatality rate. Better strategies to diagnose and treat suspected cases can lead to lower risk of deaths and local outbreaks that will be important for achieving malaria elimination in Brazil.
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