ArticleNature communications2022
A framework for reconstructing SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics using excess mortality data.
Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low-and lower-middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2024Pooled it
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Dynamics of neutralizing antibodies against COVID-19 Omicron subvariants following breakthrough infection in southwest China between December 2022 and April 2024.Signal transduction and targeted therapy · 2025Article
- Children aged 0-14 years had a far lower mortality risk during the entire COVID-19 pandemic in four major industrial countries: an observational study.European journal of pediatrics · 2024Observational
- A quantitative evaluation of the impact of vaccine roll-out rate and coverage on reducing deaths: insights from the first 2 years of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran.BMC medicine · 2023Article
- The evolution of SARS-CoV-2.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2023Review
- The Casualties of War: An Excess Mortality Estimate of Lives Lost in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict.Population research and policy review · 2023Article
- The Association of Seasonal Variations and COVID-19 Clinical Features: A Comparative Study on the Fourth and Fifth Waves.International journal of clinical practice · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The transmission dynamics and burden of SARS-CoV-2 in many regions of the world is still largely unknown due to the scarcity of epidemiological analyses and lack of testing to assess the prevalence of disease. In this work, we develop a quantitative framework based on excess mortality data to reconstruct SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and assess the level of underreporting in infections and deaths. Using weekly all-cause mortality data from Iran, we are able to show a strong agreement between our attack rate estimates and seroprevalence measurements in each province and find significant heterogeneity in the level of exposure across the country with 11 provinces reaching near 100% attack rates. Despite having a young population, our analysis reveals that incorporating limited access to medical services in our model, coupled with undercounting of COVID-19-related deaths, leads to estimates of infection fatality rate in most provinces of Iran that are comparable to high-income countries.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.