ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2022
Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers.
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Who cites it
44 citing papers in PubMed.
- Comparing the efficacy of intravenous morphine versus ibuprofen or the combination of ibuprofen and acetaminophen in patients with closed limb fractures: a randomized clinical trial.BMC emergency medicine · 2024Trial
- Applied behavioral and decision sciences in support of US FDA's drug regulatory mission.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness of community-based interventions for reducing opioid overdose and non-overdose deaths: simulation modeling of HEALing Communities Study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Impact of enhanced practices on opioid overdose deaths: A community-based modeling approach.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2026Article
- The changing contribution of fentanyl use to non-fatal overdose among a cohort of people who inject drugs in San Diego, California: A longitudinal assessment.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2026Article
- OPOSim: An Agent-Based Model for Evaluating Long-Term Effects of Opioid Policy Outcomes in North Carolina.Journal of artificial societies and social simulation : JASSS · 2026Article
- An analysis of the burden of drug use disorders from 1990 to 2023: differences between China, India, and the United States.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2026Article
- Efficacy of an integrated treatment for fathers with Co-occurring substance misuse and family violence.Contemporary clinical trials communications · 2025Article
- Why have overdose deaths decreased? Widespread fentanyl saturation and decreased drug use among key drivers.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2025Review
- System dynamics modeling to inform implementation of evidence-based prevention of opioid overdose and fatality: A state-level model from the New York HEALing Communities Study.The International journal on drug policy · 2025Article
- Quantitative Economon Model of Transactions for Drugs and Other Commodities.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Sentiment Analysis Using a Large Language Model-Based Approach to Detect Opioids Mixed With Other Substances Via Social Media: Method Development and Validation.JMIR infodemiology · 2025Article
- Modeling Health and Economic Outcomes of Providing Stable Housing to Homeless Adults With OUD.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) receipt and persistence among opioid-dependent people who inject drugs initiating PrEP for HIV prevention.Journal of substance use and addiction treatment · 2025Article
- Sex Differences in Opioid Misuse among Adults with Chronic Lower Back Pain: The Roles of Negative Affect and Related Transdiagnostic Factors.Journal of substance use · 2025Article
- Understanding the online landscape of cannabis discourse: a Twitter analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Opioid Addiction and Gender Role Conflict: A Comparative Study of Fathers Receiving Treatment for an Opioid Use Disorder.Psychology of men & masculinity · 2025Article
- Measuring network dynamics of opioid overdose deaths in the United States.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Temporal and spatial trends of fentanyl co-occurrence in the illicit drug supply in the United States: a serial cross-sectional analysis.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2024Article
- Impact of Alternative Ways to Operationalize Buprenorphine Treatment Duration on Understanding Continuity of Care for Opioid Use Disorder.International journal of mental health and addiction · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The opioid crisis is a major public health challenge in the United States, killing about 70,000 people in 2020 alone. Long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects on drug-use behavior create dynamic complexity, complicating policy decision-making. In 2017, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine called for a quantitative systems model to help understand and address this complexity and guide policy decisions. Here, we present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), a dynamic simulation model developed in response to that charge. SOURCE tracks the US population aged ≥12 y through the stages of prescription and illicit opioid (e.g., heroin, illicit fentanyl) misuse and use disorder, addiction treatment, remission, and overdose death. Using data spanning from 1999 to 2020, we highlight how risks of drug use initiation and overdose have evolved in response to essential endogenous feedback mechanisms, including: 1) social influence on drug use initiation and escalation among people who use opioids; 2) risk perception and response based on overdose mortality, influencing potential new initiates; and 3) capacity limits on treatment engagement; as well as other drivers, such as 4) supply-side changes in prescription opioid and heroin availability; and 5) the competing influences of illicit fentanyl and overdose death prevention efforts. Our estimates yield a more nuanced understanding of the historical trajectory of the crisis, providing a basis for projecting future scenarios and informing policy planning.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.