Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35637862›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific2022

Burden of chronic hepatitis B and C infections in 2015 and future trends in Japan: A simulation study.

Junko Tanaka, Akemi Kurisu, Masatsugu Ohara, Serge Ouoba, Masayuki Ohisa, Aya Sugiyama, Michelle L Wang, Lindsey Hiebert, Tatsuya Kanto, Tomoyuki Akita

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
30citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

30 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
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  5. Observational
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  16. Observational
  17. Article
  18. Magnetic resonance elastography for the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B.JGH open : an open access journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2024
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Cancer Prevalence Projections in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020-2050: A Statistical Modeling Study.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Junko TanakaDepartment of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
Akemi KurisuDepartment of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
Masatsugu OharaDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, National Hospital Organization Hokkaido Medical Center, Hokkaido, Japan.
Serge OuobaDepartment of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
Masayuki OhisaDepartment of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
Aya SugiyamaDepartment of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
Michelle L WangProject Research Center for Epidemiology and Prevention of Viral Hepatitis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
Lindsey HiebertDepartment of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
Tatsuya KantoThe Research Center for Hepatitis and Immunology, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
Tomoyuki AkitaDepartment of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Determining the number of chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and C virus (HCV) infections is essential to assess the progress towards the World Health Organization 2030 viral hepatitis elimination goals. Using data from the Japanese National Database (NDB), we calculated the number of chronic HBV and HCV infections in 2015 and predicted the trend until 2035. Methods: NDB and first-time blood donors data were used to calculate the number of chronic HBV and HCV infections in 2015. A Markov simulation was applied to predict chronic infections until 2035 using transition probabilities calculated from NDB data. Findings: The total number of chronic HBV and HCV infections in 2015 in Japan was 1,905,187-2,490,873 (HCV:877,841-1,302,179, HBV:1,027,346-1,188,694), of which 923,661-1,509,347 were undiagnosed or diagnosed but not linked to care ("not engaged in care"), and 981,526 were engaged in care. Chronic HBV and HCV infections are expected to be 923,313-1,304,598 in 2030, and 739,118-1,045,884 in 2035. Compared to 2015, by 2035, the number of persons with HCV not engaged in care will decline by 59·8 - 76·1% and 86·5% for patients in care. For HBV, a 47·3 - 49·3% decrease is expected for persons not engaged in care and a decline of 26·0% for patients engaged in care. Interpretation: Although the burden of HBV and HCV is expected to decrease by 2035, challenges in controlling hepatitis remain. Improved and innovative screening strategies with linkage to care for HCV cases, and a functional cure for HBV are needed. Funding: Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

Indexed as

AC, asymptomatic carrierBepatitis BCH, chronic hepatitisC-LC, compensated liver cirrhosisDAA, direct-acting antiviralD-LC, decompensated liver cirrhosisGepatitis CHBV, hepatitis B virus, HCV, hepatitis C virusHCC, hepatocellular carcinomaICD, International classification of diseasesIFN, interferonJapanLC, liver cirrhosisMarkov modelMHLW, Ministry of health labourMTCT, mother-to-child transmissionNA, nucleos(t)ide analoguesNDB, national database, SVR, sustained virologic rate, WHO, World Health OrganizationPrediction

Identifiers

PMID35637862
PMCPMC9142742

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.