Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35637656›Full record

ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2022

Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data.

Shi Zhao, Peihua Cao, Daozhou Gao, Zian Zhuang, Weiming Wang, Jinjun Ran, Kai Wang, Lin Yang, Mohammad R Einollahi, Yijun Lou and 2 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
0.8field-weighted citation impact, top 33% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Why Andes hantavirus is not the next SARS-CoV-2: contrasting viral shedding, transmissibility and genomic patterns.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Epidemiologic Parameters for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2022
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 8 institutions in 3 countries.

Shi ZhaoJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Peihua CaoClinical Research Centre, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
Daozhou GaoDepartment of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China.
Zian ZhuangDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Weiming WangSchool of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China.
Jinjun RanSchool of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Kai WangDepartment of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China.
Lin YangSchool of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Mohammad R EinollahiSchool of Computer Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
Yijun LouDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Daihai HeDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Maggie H WangJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Hong Kong Polytechnic University · HKChinese University of Hong Kong · HKHuaiyin Normal University · CNIran University of Science and Technology · IRShanghai Normal University · CNUniversity of Hong Kong · HKXinjiang Medical University · CNZhujiang Hospital · CN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process, and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9 (95%CrI: 1.7-7.7). The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days, and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial. We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34% after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5. According to the model simulation, relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size, postpone the timing of epidemic peak, and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare. The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.

Indexed as

COVID-19Diamond princess shipReproduction numberTransmission

Identifiers

PMID35637656
PMCPMC9132685
OpenAlexW4281563549

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.