Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35637295›Full record

ArticleNature human behaviour2022

Efficient coding of numbers explains decision bias and noise.

Arthur Prat-Carrabin, Michael Woodford

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Nature human behaviour, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Identifiability of Bayesian models of perception.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Shared cognitive biases influence numerical judgments in macaques and crows.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Individual differences in information demand have a low dimensional structure predicted by some curiosity traits.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  10. Integrated Perceptual Decisions Rely on Parallel Evidence Accumulation.The Journal of neuroscience : the official journal of the Society for Neuroscience · 2024
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Motor "laziness" constrains fixation selection in real-world tasks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  13. The Future of Decisions From Experience: Connecting Real-World Decision Problems to Cognitive Processes.Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science · 2024
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Prior Expectations in Visual Speed Perception Predict Encoding Characteristics of Neurons in Area MT.The Journal of neuroscience : the official journal of the Society for Neuroscience · 2022
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Arthur Prat-CarrabinDepartment of Economics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. arthur.p@columbia.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-6710-1488
Michael WoodfordDepartment of Economics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5485-5280

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Humans differentially weight different stimuli in averaging tasks, which has been interpreted as reflecting encoding bias. We examine the alternative hypothesis that stimuli are encoded with noise and then optimally decoded. Under a model of efficient coding, the amount of noise should vary across stimuli and depend on statistics of the stimuli. We investigate these predictions through a task in which the participants are asked to compare the averages of two series of numbers, each sampled from a prior distribution that varies across blocks of trials. The participants encode numbers with a bias and a noise that both depend on the number. Infrequently occurring numbers are encoded with more noise. We show how an efficient-coding, Bayesian-decoding model accounts for these patterns and best captures the participants' behaviour. Finally, our results suggest that Wei and Stocker's "law of human perception", which relates the bias and variability of sensory estimates, also applies to number cognition.

Indexed as

Bayes TheoremBiasHumans

Identifiers

PMID35637295

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.