Validation of an MRI-based prostate cancer prebiopsy Gleason score predictive nomogram.

Background: Gleason score grading is a cornerstone of risk stratification and management of patients with prostate cancer (PCa). In this work, we derive and validate a nomogram that uses prostate multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MP-MRI) and clinical patient characteristics to predict biopsy Gleason scores (bGS). Materials and methods: A predictive nomogram was derived from 143 men who underwent MP-MRI prior to any prostate biopsy and then validated on an independent cohort of 235 men from a different institution who underwent MP-MRI for PCa workup. Screen positive lesions were defined as lesions positive on T2W and DWI sequences on MP-MRI. Prostate specific antigen (PSA) density, number of screen positive lesions, and MRI suspicion were associated with PCa Gleason score on biopsy and were used to generate a predictive nomogram. The independent cohort was tested on the nomogram and the most likely bGS was noted. Results: The mean PSA in the validation cohort was 9.25ng/mL versus 6.8ng/mL in the original cohort ( Conclusions: A preintervention nomogram based on PSA and MRI findings can help narrow down the likely pathologic finding on biopsy. Validation of the nomogram demonstrated a significant ability to correctly identify the most likely bGS. This feasibility study demonstrates the potential of a prebiopsy prediction of bGS and based on the high negative predictive value, identification of men who may not need biopsies, which could impact future risk stratification for PCa.