ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2022
A Combined Model of SARIMA and Prophet Models in Forecasting AIDS Incidence in Henan Province, China.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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18 citing papers in PubMed.
- Spatiotemporal dynamics, clustering, and ARIMA-based short-term prediction of human brucellosis in Xinjiang, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Time-Series Analysis and Age-Stratified Forecasting of Diarrheal Disease in Rwanda Using SARIMA Models.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Comparative Analysis of SARIMA, Prophet, and a Diagnostic Decomposition-Correction Hybrid for Long-Horizon Lottery Sales Forecasting.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Forecasting monthly AIDS incidence in China via LSTM-CNN parallel fusion: a comparative study of 10 predictive models.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Modeling the seasonal epidemic of human brucellosis in China: A comparative time series analysis.PloS one · 2026Article
- Global burden of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease from 1990 to 2021 and the prediction for the next 10 years.Preventive medicine reports · 2025Article
- Multiple change point analysis and time series forecast of brucellosis reports in Xinjiang, China from 2010 to 2024.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Statistical modelling and forecasting of HIV and anti-retroviral therapy cases by time-series and machine learning models.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Incidence of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing: a forecasting study based on mathematical models.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Development and Comparison of Time Series Models in Predicting Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Cases - Hubei Province, China, 2013-2020.China CDC weekly · 2024Article
- Estimating the Temporal Epidemiological Trends of Tuberculosis Incidence by Using an Advanced Theta Method.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Article
- Time series models in prediction of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome cases in Shandong province, China.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and prediction model construction of hand, foot and mouth disease in Quzhou City, China, 2005-2023.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Study on Univariate Modeling and Prediction Methods Using Monthly HIV Incidence and Mortality Cases in China.HIV/AIDS (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2024Article
- Mushroom poisoning outbreaks in Guizhou Province, China: a prediction study using SARIMA and Prophet models.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Trend of the Tuberculous Pleurisy Notification Rate in Eastern China During 2017-2021: Spatiotemporal Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and prediction model construction of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Quzhou City, China, 2005-2022.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a serious public health problem. This study aims to establish a combined model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and Prophet models based on an L1-norm to predict the incidence of AIDS in Henan province, China. The monthly incidences of AIDS in Henan province from 2012 to 2020 were obtained from the Health Commission of Henan Province. A SARIMA model, a Prophet model, and two combined models were adopted to fit the monthly incidence of AIDS using the data from January 2012 to December 2019. The data from January 2020 to December 2020 was used to verify. The mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to compare the prediction effect among the models. The results showed that the monthly incidence fluctuated from 0.05 to 0.50 per 100,000 individuals, and the monthly incidence of AIDS had a certain periodicity in Henan province. In addition, the prediction effect of the Prophet model was better than SARIMA model, the combined model was better than the single models, and the combined model based on the L1-norm had the best effect values (MSE = 0.0056, MAE = 0.0553, MAPE = 43.5337). This indicated that, compared with the L2-norm, the L1-norm improved the prediction accuracy of the combined model. The combined model of SARIMA and Prophet based on the L1-norm is a suitable method to predict the incidence of AIDS in Henan. Our findings can provide theoretical evidence for the government to formulate policies regarding AIDS prevention.
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