ArticleBMC health services research2022
System dynamic modelling of healthcare associated influenza -a tool for infection control.
Article in BMC health services research, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.
- Deep learning architectures for influenza dynamics and treatment optimization: a comprehensive review.Frontiers in artificial intelligence · 2025Review
- Modeling Supply and Demand Dynamics of Vaccines against Epidemic-Prone Pathogens: Case Study of Ebola Virus Disease.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Planning for healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Southeast of England: a system dynamics modelling approach.BMJ open · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe transmission dynamics of influenza virus within healthcare settings are not fully understood. Capturing the interplay between host, viral and environmental factors is difficult using conventional research methods. Instead, system dynamic modelling may be used to illustrate the complex scenarios including non-linear relationships and multiple interactions which occur within hospitals during a seasonal influenza epidemic. We developed such a model intended as a support for health-care providers in identifying potentially effective control strategies to prevent influenza transmission.
methodsBy using computer simulation software, we constructed a system dynamic model to illustrate transmission dynamics within a large acute-care hospital. We used local real-world clinical and epidemiological data collected during the season 2016/17, as well as data from the national surveillance programs and relevant publications to form the basic structure of the model. Multiple stepwise simulations were performed to identify the relative effectiveness of various control strategies and to produce estimates of the accumulated number of healthcare-associated influenza cases per season.
resultsScenarios regarding the number of patients exposed for influenza virus by shared room and the extent of antiviral prophylaxis and treatment were investigated in relation to estimations of influenza vaccine coverage, vaccine effectiveness and inflow of patients with influenza. In total, 680 simulations were performed, of which each one resulted in an estimated number per season. The most effective preventive measure identified by our model was administration of antiviral prophylaxis to exposed patients followed by reducing the number of patients receiving care in shared rooms.
conclusionsThis study presents an system dynamic model that can be used to capture the complex dynamics of in-hospital transmission of viral infections and identify potentially effective interventions to prevent healthcare-associated influenza infections. Our simulations identified antiviral prophylaxis as the most effective way to control in-hospital influenza transmission.
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