ArticleBMC public health2022
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study.
Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 13 citations in OpenAlex.
- Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant spread and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Retrospective analysis of age-specific non-pharmaceutical interventions on wild-type SARS-CoV-2 in Canada.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Simulating targeted vaccination strategies with network-based and agent-based models: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- A Scoping Review of the Current Knowledge of the Social Determinants of Health and Infectious Diseases (Specifically COVID-19, Tuberculosis, and H1N1 Influenza) in Canadian Arctic Indigenous Communities.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Article
- Impact of High Covid-19 Vaccination Rate in an Aging Population: Estimating Averted Hospitalizations and Deaths in the Basque Country, Spain Using Counterfactual Modeling.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2024Article
- Observational
- The second year of pandemic in the Arctic: examining spatiotemporal dynamics of the COVID-19 "Delta wave" in Arctic regions in 2021.International journal of circumpolar health · 2022Article
- Economic evaluation of COVID-19 rapid antigen screening programs in the workplace.BMC medicine · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundNunavut, the northernmost Arctic territory of Canada, experienced three community outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from early November 2020 to mid-June 2021. We sought to investigate how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination affected the course of these outbreaks.
methodsWe used an agent-based model of disease transmission to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut. The model encapsulated demographics and household structure of the population, the effect of NPIs, and daily number of vaccine doses administered. We fitted the model to inferred, back-calculated infections from incidence data reported from October 2020 to June 2021. We then compared the fit of the scenario based on case count data with several counterfactual scenarios without the effect of NPIs, without vaccination, and with a hypothetical accelerated vaccination program whereby 98% of the vaccine supply was administered to eligible individuals.
resultsWe found that, without a territory-wide lockdown during the first COVID-19 outbreak in November 2020, the peak of infections would have been 4.7 times higher with a total of 5,404 (95% CrI: 5,015-5,798) infections before the start of vaccination on January 6, 2021. Without effective NPIs, we estimated a total of 4,290 (95% CrI: 3,880-4,708) infections during the second outbreak under the pace of vaccination administered in Nunavut. In a hypothetical accelerated vaccine rollout, the total infections during the second Nunavut outbreak would have been 58% lower, to 1,812 (95% CrI: 1,593-2,039) infections. Vaccination was estimated to have the largest impact during the outbreak in April 2021, averting 15,196 (95% CrI: 14,798-15,591) infections if the disease had spread through Nunavut communities. Accelerated vaccination would have further reduced the total infections to 243 (95% CrI: 222-265) even in the absence of NPIs.
conclusionsNPIs have been essential in mitigating pandemic outbreaks in this large, geographically distanced and remote territory. While vaccination has the greatest impact to prevent infection and severe outcomes, public health implementation of NPIs play an essential role in the short term before attaining high levels of immunity in the population.
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