Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35614394›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2022

COVID-19 in Japan, January-March 2020: insights from the first three months of the epidemic.

Natsuko Imai, Katy A M Gaythorpe, Sangeeta Bhatia, Tara D Mangal, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, H Juliette T Unwin, Elita Jauneikaite, Neil M Ferguson

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Natsuko ImaiMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK. n.imai@imperial.ac.uk.
Katy A M GaythorpeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Sangeeta BhatiaMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Tara D MangalMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Gina Cuomo-DannenburgMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK.
H Juliette T UnwinMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Elita JauneikaiteMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Neil M FergusonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1Wellcome Trust 219415
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundUnderstanding the characteristics and natural history of novel pathogens is crucial to inform successful control measures. Japan was one of the first affected countries in the COVID-19 pandemic reporting their first case on 14 January 2020. Interventions including airport screening, contact tracing, and cluster investigations were quickly implemented. Here we present insights from the first 3 months of the epidemic in Japan based on detailed case data.

methodsWe conducted descriptive analyses based on information systematically extracted from individual case reports from 13 January to 31 March 2020 including patient demographics, date of report and symptom onset, symptom progression, travel history, and contact type. We analysed symptom progression and estimated the time-varying reproduction number, R

resultsThe corrected fitted mean onset-to-reporting delay after the peak was 4 days (standard deviation: ± 2 days). Early transmission was driven primarily by returning travellers with R

conclusionsInformation collected in the early phases of an outbreak are important in characterising any novel pathogen. The availability of timely and detailed data and appropriate analyses is critical to estimate and understand a pathogen's transmissibility, high-risk settings for transmission, and key symptoms. These insights can help to inform urgent response strategies.

Indexed as

COVID-19AdultBayes TheoremHumansJapanPandemicsSARS-CoV-2Young AdultContact patternsCOVID-19Descriptive epidemiologyTransmissibility

Identifiers

PMID35614394
PMCPMC9130991

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.