ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2022
Impacts of a delayed and slow-paced vaccination on cases and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Optimal Timing of Vaccination: A Narrative Review of Integrating Strategies for COVID-19, Influenza, and Respiratory Syncytial Virus.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2025Review
- Immunization against covid-19 and mortality in hospitalized patients: a retrospective cohort.Revista de saude publica · 2024Article
- Estimated COVID-19 severe cases and deaths averted in the first year of the vaccination campaign in Brazil: A retrospective observational study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2023Article
- Impacts of a delayed and slow-paced vaccination on cases and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Covid-19: temporal evolution and immunization in the three epidemiological waves, Brazil, 2020-2022.Revista de saude publica · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
In Brazil, vaccination has always cut across party political and ideological lines, which has delayed its start and brought the whole process into disrepute. Such divergences put the immunization of the population in the background and create additional hurdles beyond the pandemic, mistrust and scepticism over vaccines. We conduct a mathematical modelling study to analyse the impacts of late vaccination along with slowly increasing coverage, as well as how harmful it would be if part of the population refused to get vaccinated or missed the second dose. We analyse data from confirmed cases, deaths and vaccination in the state of Rio de Janeiro in the period between 10 March 2020 and 27 October 2021. We estimate that if the start of vaccination had been 30 days earlier, combined with efforts to drive vaccination rates up, about 31 657 deaths could have been avoided. In addition, the slow pace of vaccination and the low demand for the second dose could cause a resurgence of cases as early as 2022. Even when reaching the expected vaccination coverage for the first dose, it is still challenging to increase adherence to the second dose and maintain a high vaccination rate to avoid new outbreaks.
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