Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35611330›Full record

ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2022

Assessing the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variants.

Yan Wang, Kaiyuan Sun, Zhaomin Feng, Lan Yi, Yanpeng Wu, Hengcong Liu, Quanyi Wang, Marco Ajelli, Cécile Viboud, Hongjie Yu

Abstract readPreprint
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Yan WangSchool of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
Kaiyuan SunDivision of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Zhaomin FengBeijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC), China.
Lan YiSchool of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
Yanpeng WuSchool of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
Hengcong LiuSchool of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
Quanyi WangBeijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC), China.
Marco AjelliLaboratory of Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
Cécile ViboudDivision of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Hongjie YuSchool of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We developed a spatially structured, fully stochastic, individual-based SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to evaluate the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in mainland China considering currently dominant Omicron variants, China's current immunization level, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We also built a statistical model to estimate the overall disease burden under various hypothetical mitigation scenarios. We found that due to high transmissibility, neither Omicron BA.1 or BA.2 could be contained by China's pre-Omicron NPI strategies which were successful prior to the emergence of the Omicron variants. However, increased intervention intensity, such as enhanced population mobility restrictions and multi-round mass testing, could lead to containment success. We estimated that an acute Omicron epidemic wave in mainland China would result in significant number of deaths if China were to reopen under current vaccine coverage with no antiviral uptake, while increasing vaccination coverage and antiviral uptake could substantially reduce the disease burden. As China's current vaccination has yet to reach high coverage in older populations, NPIs remain essential tools to maintain low levels of infection while building up protective population immunity, ensuring a smooth transition out of the pandemic phase while minimizing the overall disease burden.

Identifiers

PMID35611330
PMCPMC9128785

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.