ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2022
Simulating COVID-19 classroom transmission on a university campus.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among Italian university students: Insights from history to shape the future.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Article
- On campus dormitories as viral transmission sinks: Phylodynamic insights into student housing networks during the COVID-19 pandemic.PLoS pathogens · 2025Article
- Dynamic Contact Networks in Confined Spaces: Synthesizing Micro-Level Encounter Patterns through Human Mobility Models from Real-World Data.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Incorporating social determinants of health into transmission modeling of COVID-19 vaccine in the US: a scoping review.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2024Article
- Airborne disease transmission during indoor gatherings over multiple time scales: Modeling framework and policy implications.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Evaluating the COVID-19 Containment Protocol in Greek Universities for the Academic Year 2021-2022.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We study the airborne transmission risk associated with holding in-person classes on university campuses for the original strain and a more contagious variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We adopt a model for airborne transmission risk in an enclosed room that considers room properties, mask efficiency, and initial infection probability of the occupants. Additionally, we study the effect of vaccination on the spread of the virus. The presented model has been evaluated in simulations using fall 2019 (prepandemic) and fall 2020 (hybrid instruction) course registration data of a large US university, allowing for assessing the difference in transmission risk between in-person and hybrid programs and the impact of occupancy reduction, mask-wearing, and vaccination. The simulations indicate that without vaccination, moving 90% of the classes online leads to a 17 to 18× reduction in new cases, and universal mask usage results in an ∼2.7 to 3.6× reduction in new infections through classroom interactions. Furthermore, the results indicate that for the original variant and using vaccines with efficacy greater than 90%, at least 23% (64%) of students need to be vaccinated with (without) mask usage in order to operate the university at full occupancy while preventing an increase in cases due to classroom interactions. For the more contagious variant, even with universal mask usage, at least 93% of the students need to be vaccinated to ensure the same conditions. We show that the model is able to predict trends observed in weekly infection rates for fall 2021.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.