ArticleBMC infectious diseases2022
The impact of public health interventions on the future prevalence of ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae: a population based mathematical modelling study.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- The contribution of community transmission to the burden of hospital-associated pathogens: A systematic scoping review of epidemiological models.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Review
- Environmental Antimicrobial Resistance: Implications for Food Safety and Public Health.Antibiotics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Whole-genome sequencing of Klebsiella pneumoniae MDR circulating in a pediatric hospital setting: a comprehensive genome analysis of isolates from Guayaquil, Ecuador.BMC genomics · 2024Article
- Prevalence, regional distribution, and trends of antimicrobial resistance among female outpatients with urine Klebsiella spp. isolates: a multicenter evaluation in the United States between 2011 and 2019.Antimicrobial resistance and infection control · 2024Article
- Plant-Origin Components: New Players to Combat Antibiotic Resistance inInternational journal of molecular sciences · 2024Review
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundFuture prevalence of colonization with extended-spectrum betalactamase (ESBL-) producing K. pneumoniae in humans and the potential of public health interventions against the spread of these resistant bacteria remain uncertain.
methodsBased on antimicrobial consumption and susceptibility data recorded during > 13 years in a Swiss region, we developed a mathematical model to assess the comparative effect of different interventions on the prevalence of colonization.
resultsSimulated prevalence stabilized in the near future when rates of antimicrobial consumption and in-hospital transmission were assumed to remain stable (2025 prevalence: 6.8% (95CI%:5.4-8.8%) in hospitals, 3.5% (2.5-5.0%) in the community versus 6.1% (5.0-7.5%) and 3.2% (2.3-4.2%) in 2019, respectively). When overall antimicrobial consumption was set to decrease by 50%, 2025 prevalence declined by 75% in hospitals and by 64% in the community. A 50% decline in in-hospital transmission rate led to a reduction in 2025 prevalence of 31% in hospitals and no reduction in the community. The best model fit estimated that 49% (6-100%) of observed colonizations could be attributable to sources other than human-to-human transmission within the geographical setting.
conclusionsProjections suggests that overall antimicrobial consumption will be, by far, the most powerful driver of prevalence and that a large fraction of colonizations could be attributed to non-local transmissions.
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