ArticleAmerican journal of infection control2022
Viral transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 accelerates in the winter, similarly to influenza epidemics.
Article in American journal of infection control, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Patterns in the dynamics of respiratory viruses after the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational, retrospective study using sentinel surveillance network data, Catalonia, 2022 to 2025.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026Observational
- Review
- Article
- Review
- SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies for a safe (post-)pandemic implementation of school music trips and their impact on participants' health.Frontiers in public health · 2025Observational
- Bacterial and Viral Co-Infections in COVID-19 Patients: Etiology and Clinical Impact.Biomedicines · 2024Article
- Article
- Article
- Article
- Reduction of acute respiratory infections in day-care by non-pharmaceutical interventions: a narrative review.Frontiers in public health · 2024Review
- Longitudinal surveillance of influenza in Japan, 2006-2016.Scientific reports · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 is anticipated to increase in the winter because of increased viral survival in cold damp air and thus would exacerbate viral spread in community. Analysis to capture the seasonal trend is needed to be prepared for future epidemics. We compared regression models for the 5-week case prior to each epidemic peak week for both the COVID-19 and influenza epidemics in winter and summer. The weekly case increase ratio was compared, using non-paired t tests between seasons. In order to test the robustness of seasonal transmission patterns, the normalized weekly case numbers of COVID-19 and influenza case rates of all seasons were assessed in a combined quadratic regression analysis. In winter, the weekly case increase ratio accelerated before epidemic peaks, similarly, for both COVID-19 and influenza. The quadratic regression models of weekly cases were observed to be convex curves in the winter and concave curves in the spring/summer for both COVID-19 and influenza. A significant increase of case increase ratio (3.19 [95%CI:0.01-6.37, P = .049]) of the COVID-19 and influenza epidemics was observed in winter as compared to spring/summer before the epidemic peak. The epidemic of COVID-19 was found to mirror that of influenza, suggesting a strong underlying seasonal transmissibility. Influenza epidemics can potentially be a useful reference for the COVID-19 epidemics.
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