ArticleCommunications medicine2022
Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes.
Article in Communications medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
- Biochemical insights and microRNA profiling via next-generation sequencing in moderate and severe COVID-19 cases.Clinics (Sao Paulo, Brazil) · 2026Article
- Adaptive human behavior and delays in information availability autonomously modulate epidemic waves.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- An Epidemic Model with Infection Age and Vaccination Age Structure.Infectious disease reports · 2024Article
- Differentiating behavioral impact with or without vaccination certification under mass vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on mitigating COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Stochastic dynamical analysis for the complex infectious disease model driven by multisource noises.PloS one · 2024Article
- COVID-19 Pandemic Risk Assessment: Systematic Review.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2024Review
- Modeling and analysis of novel COVID-19 outbreak under fractal-fractional derivative in Caputo sense with power-law: a case study of Pakistan.Modeling earth systems and environment · 2023Article
- Adaptive behaviors and vaccination on curbing COVID-19 transmission: Modeling simulations in eight countries.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Estimating the share of SARS-CoV-2-immunologically naïve individuals in Germany up to June 2022.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- Article
- Estimation of Total Cost Required in Controlling COVID-19 Outbreaks by Financial Incentives.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Retrospective Modeling of the Omicron Epidemic in Shanghai, China: Exploring the Timing and Performance of Control Measures.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Development and initial validation of the attitudes toward face mask use scale (ATFMUS).Heliyon · 2022Article
- Vaccine Acceptance and Hesitancy among Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Punjab, Pakistan.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Article
- Faith, Fear, and Facts: A COVID-19 Vaccination Hesitancy Intervention for Black Church Congregations.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Green Transformation of Anti-Epidemic Supplies in the Post-Pandemic Era: An Evolutionary Approach.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Robustness analysis for quantitative assessment of vaccination effects and SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Italy.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Telehealth Services for Substance Use Disorders During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Longitudinal Assessment of Intensive Outpatient Programming and Data Collection Practices.JMIR mental health · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant. Some predicted epidemic scenarios for realistic parameter values yield new COVID-19 infection waves within two years, and high daily case numbers in the endemic state, even without introducing VPs and granting more freedom to their holders. Still, suitable adaptive policies can avoid unfavorable outcomes. While VP holders could initially be allowed more freedom, the lack of full vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility will require accelerated (re-)vaccination, wide-spread immunity surveillance, and/or minimal long-term common restrictions.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.