ArticleThe Review of income and wealth2022
Excess Mortality Versus COVID-19 Death Rates: A Spatial Analysis of Socioeconomic Disparities and Political Allegiance Across U.S. States.
Article in The Review of income and wealth, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Analyzing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Mortality Data Using Weekly Exceedance in Mortality Count and Weekly Change in Mortality Indicator: A Time Series Study.Health science reports · 2025Article
- Population age structure dependency of the excess mortality P-score.Population health metrics · 2024Article
- Global Excess Mortality during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Vaccines · 2022Review
- The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on cause-specific mortality patterns: a systematic literature review.Zeitschrift fur Gesundheitswissenschaften = Journal of public health · 2022Review
- The Association of County-Level Presidential Election Outcome and COVID-19 Mortality in Colorado, 2020-2022.Journal of public health management and practice : JPHMPArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Excess mortality is a more robust measure than the counts of COVID-19 deaths typically used in epidemiological and spatial studies. Measurement issues around excess mortality, considering data quality and comparability both internationally and within the U.S., are surveyed. This paper is the first state-level spatial analysis of cumulative excess mortality for the U.S. in the first full year of the pandemic. There is strong evidence that, given appropriate controls, states with higher Democrat vote shares experienced lower excess mortality (consistent with county-level studies of COVID-19 deaths). Important demographic and socio-economic controls from a broad set tested were racial composition, age structure, population density, poverty, income, temperature, and timing of arrival of the pandemic. Interaction effects suggest the Democrat vote share effect of reducing mortality was even greater in states where the pandemic arrived early. Omitting political allegiance leads to a significant underestimation of the mortality disparities for minority populations.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.