ArticlePopulation and development review2022
Sensitivity Analysis of Excess Mortality due to the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Article in Population and development review, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 54 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
54 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Excess mortality in Mainland China after the end of the Zero COVID policy: A systematic review.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Pooled it
- Long-term mortality rate changes and inverse patterns for pandemic and post-pandemic excess mortality.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Inequality in life expectancy losses by education in Finland during COVID-19 pandemic.International journal for equity in health · 2026Article
- Excess life-years and productive life-years lost in Poland through the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic years.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Article
- Article
- Trends and demographic inequalities in mortality of the Lithuanian population during the COVID-19 pandemic: who suffered most?Population health metrics · 2025Article
- National Life Expectancy Lags Behind Benchmark Progress and the Role of Smoking: An International Comparison.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2025Article
- India's death toll in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from delayed official civil registration data.Journal of global health · 2025Article
- Seasonal Mortality and its Impact on Spatial Inequality in Life Expectancy Across Italy.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2025Article
- Excess and reduced work absence during COVID-19 in Poland: insights from cause-specific time-series models.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- Seasonality in mortality and its impact on life expectancy levels and trends across Europe.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2025Article
- Excess Mortality Estimation.Annual review of statistics and its application · 2025Article
- Excess mortality during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021) in the Netherlands: Overall and across demographic subgroups.IJID regions · 2025Article
- Surveillance of Excess Mortality Based on Community Perceptions of Funeral Frequency in Northern Malawi during the COVID-19 Pandemic.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025Article
- Excess mortality and years of life lost from 2020 to 2023 in France: a cohort study of the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- Beyond death counts: how COVID-19 affected excess mortality and productive life-years lost across 28 European states, 2020-2023.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Negative excess oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality in Europe during the early pandemic years.Oral diseases · 2025Article
- Excess potential years of working life lost in six countries from Latin America and Europe in 2020 and 2021.Occupational and environmental medicine · 2024Article
- Cause-specific excess mortality in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2022: a study using nationwide population data.European journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Excess mortality in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2022.European journal of public health · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Estimating excess mortality is challenging. The metric depends on the expected mortality level, which can differ based on given choices, such as the method and the time series length used to estimate the baseline. However, these choices are often arbitrary, and are not subject to any sensitivity analysis. We bring to light the importance of carefully choosing the inputs and methods used to estimate excess mortality. Drawing on data from 26 countries, we investigate how sensitive excess mortality is to the choice of the mortality index, the number of years included in the reference period, the method, and the time unit of the death series. We employ two mortality indices, three reference periods, two data time units, and four methods for estimating the baseline. We show that excess mortality estimates can vary substantially when these factors are changed, and that the largest variations stem from the choice of the mortality index and the method. We also find that the magnitude of the variation in excess mortality is country-specific, resulting in cross-country rankings changes. Finally, based on our findings, we provide guidelines for estimating excess mortality.
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