ArticleJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)2022
COVID-19 severity: A new approach to quantifying global cases and deaths.
Article in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society), 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Estimating the Underreporting of COVID-19 Burden in Selected Countries in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America in the Post-pandemic Era.Pulmonary therapy · 2026Article
- Start from the end: Policy exploration to inform effective and consistent interventions applied to COVID-19 in St. Louis.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Between resistance and adaptation in COVID-19 times: The outbreak daily prevalence moderates the association between conspiracy thinking and adherence to government protocols.British journal of health psychology · 2026Article
- Article
- Underreporting of Cases in the COVID-19 Outbreak of Borriana (Spain) during Mass Gathering Events in March 2020: A Cross-Sectional Study.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Estimating actual SARS-CoV-2 infections from secondary data.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- The effectiveness of COVID deaths to COVID policies: A robust conditional approach.Economic analysis and policy · 2023Article
- Estimating the propagation of both reported and undocumented COVID-19 cases in Spain: a panel data frontier approximation of epidemiological models.Journal of productivity analysis · 2023Article
- Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases.Economic modelling · 2023Article
- COVID-19 severity: A new approach to quantifying global cases and deaths.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
As the COVID-19 pandemic has progressed, so too has the recognition that cases and deaths have been underreported, perhaps vastly so. Here, we present an econometric strategy to estimate the true number of COVID-19 cases and deaths for 61 and 56 countries, respectively, from 1 January 2020 to 3 November 2020. Specifically, we estimate a 'structural' model based on the SIR epidemiological model extended to incorporate underreporting. The results indicate significant underreporting by magnitudes that align with existing research and conjectures by public health experts. While our approach requires some strong assumptions, these assumptions are very different from the equally strong assumptions required by other approaches addressing underreporting in the assessment of the extent of the pandemic. Thus, we view our approach as a complement to existing methods.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.