Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35589681›Full record

ArticleNature communications2022

SARS-CoV-2 transmission and impacts of unvaccinated-only screening in populations of mixed vaccination status.

Kate M Bubar, Casey E Middleton, Kristen K Bjorkman, Roy Parker, Daniel B Larremore

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
1.2field-weighted citation impact, top 20% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 12 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Modeling the Transmission Mitigation Impact of Testing for Infectious Diseases.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024
    Article
  5. Article
  6. SARS-CoV-2 self-test uptake and factors associated with self-testing during Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 waves in France, January to May 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Update on COVID-19 and Effectiveness of a Vaccination Campaign in a Global Context.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Review
  11. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Kate M Bubar *Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
Casey E Middleton *Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
Kristen K BjorkmanBioFrontiers Institute, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9540-6657
Roy ParkerBioFrontiers Institute, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8412-4152
Daniel B LarremoreDepartment of Computer Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA. daniel.larremore@colorado.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-5273-5234
University of Colorado Boulder · USHoward Hughes Medical Institute · US

Funding

Casual, Statistical and Mathematical Modeling with Serologic DataU01CA261277 · NCI · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI HANAGE, WILLIAM, LIPSITCH, MARC · 2020 to 2023
$2.8M
Howard Hughes Medical InstituteNCI NIH HHS U01 CA261277
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Screening programs that test only the unvaccinated population have been proposed and implemented to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 spread, implicitly assuming that the unvaccinated population drives transmission. To evaluate this premise and quantify the impact of unvaccinated-only screening programs, we introduce a model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission through which we explore a range of transmission rates, vaccine effectiveness scenarios, rates of prior infection, and screening programs. We find that, as vaccination rates increase, the proportion of transmission driven by the unvaccinated population decreases, such that most community spread is driven by vaccine-breakthrough infections once vaccine coverage exceeds 55% (omicron) or 80% (delta), points which shift lower as vaccine effectiveness wanes. Thus, we show that as vaccination rates increase, the transmission reductions associated with unvaccinated-only screening decline, identifying three distinct categories of impact on infections and hospitalizations. More broadly, these results demonstrate that effective unvaccinated-only screening depends on population immunity, vaccination rates, and variant.

Indexed as

COVID-19SARS-CoV-2COVID-19 VaccinesHospitalizationHumansPostoperative ComplicationsVaccinationCOVID-19 Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID35589681
PMCPMC9120147
OpenAlexW4280629517

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.