Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35584048›Full record

ArticleEcological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America2022

Microclimate predicts kelp forest extinction in the face of direct and indirect marine heatwave effects.

Samuel Starko, Christopher J Neufeld, Lianna Gendall, Brian Timmer, Lily Campbell, Jennifer Yakimishyn, Louis Druehl, Julia K Baum

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
14.1field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 79 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Historical data reveal extirpation of foundation species and kelp forest community deborealization in a coastal hotspot.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Marine heatwave and keystone predator loss drive broad-scale decline and hinder recovery of a rocky intertidal kelp.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2026
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Dynamic and context-dependent keystone species effects in kelp forests.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Effects of Abscisic Acid on the Physiological and Biochemical Responses ofInternational journal of molecular sciences · 2024
    Article
  18. Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  19. Review
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Samuel StarkoDepartment of Biology, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9604-9188
Christopher J NeufeldBamfield Marine Sciences Centre, Bamfield, British Columbia, Canada.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6326-7998
Lianna GendallDepartment of Geography, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1275-518X
Brian TimmerDepartment of Geography, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4820-2544
Lily CampbellDepartment of Biology, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.
Jennifer YakimishynPacific Rim National Park Reserve of Canada, Ucluelet, British Columbia, Canada.
Louis DruehlBamfield Marine Sciences Centre, Bamfield, British Columbia, Canada.
Julia K BaumDepartment of Biology, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9827-1612
University of Victoria · CABamfield Marine Sciences Centre · CAParks Canada · CAUniversity of British Columbia · CA

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Marine heatwaves threaten the persistence of kelp forests globally. However, the observed responses of kelp forests to these events have been highly variable on local scales. Here, we synthesize distribution data from an environmentally diverse region to examine spatial patterns of canopy kelp persistence through an unprecedented marine heatwave. We show that, although often overlooked, temperature variation occurring at fine spatial scales (i.e., a few kilometers or less) can be a critical driver of kelp forest persistence during these events. Specifically, though kelp forests nearly all persisted toward the cool outer coast, inshore areas were >3°C warmer at the surface and experienced extensive kelp loss. Although temperatures remained cool at depths below the thermocline, kelp persistence in these thermal refugia was strongly constrained by biotic interactions, specifically urchin populations that increased during the heatwave and drove transitions to urchin barrens in deeper rocky habitat. Urchins were, however, largely absent from mixed sand and cobble benthos, leading to an unexpected association between bottom substrate and kelp forest persistence at inshore sites with warm surface waters. Our findings demonstrate both that warm microclimates increase the risk of habitat loss during marine heatwaves and that biotic interactions modified by these events will modulate the capacity of cool microclimates to serve as thermal refugia.

Indexed as

KelpClimate ChangeEcosystemForestsMicroclimateSandSandbiogenic habitatcanopy-forming kelpclimate changehistorical ecologyLaminarialesmarine heatwavemicroclimateregime shifts

Identifiers

PMID35584048
PMCPMC13425692
OpenAlexW4280575667

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.