ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2022
The role of time-varying viral shedding in modelling environmental surveillance for public health: revisiting the 2013 poliovirus outbreak in Israel.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- Selecting Sites for Strategic Surveillance of Zoonotic Pathogens: A Case Study in Panamá.EcoHealth · 2025Article
- Post-recovery viral shedding shapes wastewater-based epidemiological inferences.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Making waves: Integrating wastewater surveillance with dynamic modeling to track and predict viral outbreaks.Water research · 2023Article
- Longitudinal and quantitative fecal shedding dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, pepper mild mottle virus, and crAssphage.mSphere · 2023Article
- Temporal and spatial relationships of CrAssphage and enteric viral and bacterial pathogens in wastewater in North Carolina.Water research · 2023Article
- A simple SEIR-V model to estimate COVID-19 prevalence and predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission using wastewater-based surveillance data.The Science of the total environment · 2023Article
- Assessing the effectiveness of environmental sampling for surveillance of foot-and-mouth disease virus in a cattle herd.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2023Article
- A simple SEIR-V model to estimate COVID-19 prevalence and predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission using wastewater-based surveillance data.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
- The role of time-varying viral shedding in modelling environmental surveillance for public health: revisiting the 2013 poliovirus outbreak in Israel.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Environmental pathogen surveillance is a sensitive tool that can detect early-stage outbreaks, and it is being used to track poliovirus and other pathogens. However, interpretation of longitudinal environmental surveillance signals is difficult because the relationship between infection incidence and viral load in wastewater depends on time-varying shedding intensity. We developed a mathematical model of time-varying poliovirus shedding intensity consistent with expert opinion across a range of immunization states. Incorporating this shedding model into an infectious disease transmission model, we analysed quantitative, polymerase chain reaction data from seven sites during the 2013 Israeli poliovirus outbreak. Compared to a constant shedding model, our time-varying shedding model estimated a slower peak (four weeks later), with more of the population reached by a vaccination campaign before infection and a lower cumulative incidence. We also estimated the population shed virus for an average of 29 days (95% CI 28-31), longer than expert opinion had suggested for a population that was purported to have received three or more inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) doses. One explanation is that IPV may not substantially affect shedding duration. Using realistic models of time-varying shedding coupled with longitudinal environmental surveillance may improve our understanding of outbreak dynamics of poliovirus, SARS-CoV-2, or other pathogens.
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Registered trials
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