ArticlePloS one2022
Estimation of the basic reproduction number of Alpha and Delta variants of COVID-19 pandemic in Iran.
Article in PloS one, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Amplification of the power of network hubs and degree skewness over infectious disease spread during lulls.PloS one · 2025Article
- The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in preventing hospitalisation and mortality: A nationwide cross-sectional study in Iran.Journal of global health · 2024Article
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- Progressive Evolutionary Dynamics of Gene-Specific ω Led to the Emergence of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Strains Having Super-Infectivity and Virulence with Vaccine Neutralization.International journal of molecular sciences · 2024Article
- Impacts of Vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission Dynamics in Four Metropolitan Areas of the United States.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Anticoagulation in the management of septic cavernous sinus thrombosis secondary to rhino-orbito-cerebral mucormycosis: A retrospective real-world experience.Current journal of neurology · 2024Article
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- Association of Prior COVID-19 Infection with Risk of Breakthrough Infection Following Vaccination: A Cohort Study in Isfahan, Iran.International journal of preventive medicine · 2024Article
- Seroepidemiological and Molecular Survey for the Detection of SARS-CoV-2 Infection among Children in Iran, September 2020 to June 2021: 1-Year Cross-Sectional Study.Microorganisms · 2023Article
- The reproduction rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 different variants recently circulated in human: a narrative review.European journal of medical research · 2023Review
- Characteristics of headaches attributed to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and factors associated with its frequency and prolongation: a cross-sectional cohort study.Frontiers in neurology · 2023Article
- Factors associated with adverse outcomes among patients hospitalized at a COVID-19 treatment center in Herat, Afghanistan.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Time series forecasting of COVID-19 infections and deaths in Alpha and Delta variants using LSTM networks.PloS one · 2023Article
- The Impact of Demographic, Clinical Characteristics and the Various COVID-19 Variant Types on All-Cause Mortality: A Case-Series Retrospective Study.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- The Advantage of Using Immunoinformatic Tools on Vaccine Design and Development for Coronavirus.Vaccines · 2022Review
- COVID-19 in Iran: clinical presentations and outcomes in three different surges of COVID-19 infection.Virology journal · 2022Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
Estimating the basic reproduction number of a pandemic and the changes that appear on this value over time provide a good understanding of the contagious nature of the virus and efficiency of the controlling strategies. In this paper, we focus on studying the basic reproduction number (R0) for two important variants of COVID-19 pandemic in Iran: Alpha and Delta variants. We use four different methods, three statistical models and one mathematical model, to compute R0: Exponential Growth Rate (EGR), Maximum Likelihood (ML), Sequential Bayesian (SB), and time-dependent SIR model. Alpha variant of COVID-19 was active in Iran from March 10, 2021 until June 10, 2021. Our computations indicate that total R0 of this variant according to EGR, ML, SB, and SIR model is respectively 0.9999 (95% CI: 0.9994-1), 1.046 (95% CI: 1.044-1.049), 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03-1.08), and 2.79 (95% CI: 2.77-2.81) in the whole active time interval. Moreover, during the time interval from April 3, 2021 to April 9, 2021 in which this variant was in its exponential growth in Iran, R0 of Alpha variant in Iran according to SB, EGR, ML, and SIR model is respectively 2.26 (95% CI: 2.04-2.49), 2.64 (95% CI: 2.58-2.7), 11.38 (95% CI: 11.28-11.48), and 12.13 (95% CI: 12.12-12.14). Delta variant was active in Iran during the time interval from June 22, 2021 until September 22, 2021. Our computations show that during the time interval from July 3, 2021 to July 8, 2021 in which this variant was in its exponential growth in Iran, R0 of Delta variant in Iran according to SB, EGR, ML, and SIR model is respectively 3 (95% CI: 2.34-3.66), 3.1 (95% CI: 3.02-3.17), 12 (95% CI: 11.89-12.12), and 23.3 (95% CI: 23.19-23.41). Further, total R0 of Delta variant in Iran in the whole active time interval according to EGR, ML, SB, and SIR model is respectively 1.042 (95% CI: 1.04-1.043), 1.053 (95% CI: 1.051-1.055), 0.79 (95% CI: 0.63-0.95), and 5.65 (95% CI: 5.6-5.7). As the results show Delta variant was more severe than Alpha variant in Iran. Chasing the changes in R0 during each variant shows that the controlling strategies applied were effective in controlling the virus spread.
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