ArticlePLoS computational biology2022
Appropriate relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions minimizes the risk of a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections in spite of the Delta variant.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- MEmilio: a high performance Modular EpideMIcs simuLatIOn software for multi-scale and comparative simulations of infectious disease dynamics.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Graph neural network surrogates to leverage mechanistic expert knowledge towards reliable and immediate pandemic response.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Changing socioeconomic inequalities in the incidence and case fatality rates of COVID-19 in Germany, March 2020 through May 2022: an ecological study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Modeling the Complete Dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic of Germany and Its Federal States Using Multiple Levels of Data.Viruses · 2025Article
- Hybrid metapopulation agent-based epidemiological models for efficient insight on the individual scale: A contribution to green computing.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Article
- Novel travel time aware metapopulation models and multi-layer waning immunity for late-phase epidemic and endemic scenarios.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- The Effectiveness of Face Mask Mandates on COVID-19 Transmission in Utah.Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974) · 2024Article
- A novel, scenario-based approach to comparing non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies across nations.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Regional opening strategies with commuter testing and containment of new SARS-CoV-2 variants in Germany.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
We analyze the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) under an increasing number of vaccinations in Germany. For the spread of SARS-CoV-2 we employ a SIR-type model that accounts for age-dependence and includes realistic contact patterns between age groups. The implementation of NPIs occurs on changed contact patterns, improved isolation, or reduced infectiousness when, e.g., wearing masks. We account for spatial heterogeneity and commuting activities in between regions in Germany, and the testing of commuters is considered as a further NPI. We include the ongoing vaccination process and analyze the effect of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, which is considered to be 40%-60% more infectious then the currently dominant B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant. We explore different opening scenarios under the ongoing vaccination process by assuming that local restrictions are either lifted in early July or August with or without continued wearing of masks and testing. Our results indicate that we can counteract the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 despite the Delta variant with appropriate timing for the relaxation of NPIs. In all cases, however, school children are hit the hardest.
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