ArticleMathematical methods in the applied sciences2022
Study on the virulence evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and the trend of the epidemics of COVID-19.
Article in Mathematical methods in the applied sciences, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 12 citations in OpenAlex.
- Modelling the impact of behavioural interventions during pandemics: A systematic review.PloS one · 2025Pooled it
- Two years of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and COVID-19 in Lombardy, Italy.Internal and emergency medicine · 2023Article
- Will the Relaxation of COVID-19 Control Measures Have an Impact on the Chinese Internet-Using Public? Social Media-Based Topic and Sentiment Analysis.International journal of public health · 2023Article
- Study on the virulence evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and the trend of the epidemics of COVID-19.Mathematical methods in the applied sciences · 2022Article
- Evaluation of COVID-19 pandemic spreading using computational analysis on nonlinear SITR model.Mathematical methods in the applied sciences · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
This is the first attempt to investigate the effects of the factors related to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the physical condition of the public on virulence evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and the trend of the epidemics of COVID-19 under an adaptive dynamics framework. Qualitative agreement of the prediction on the epidemics of COVID-19 with the actual situations convinced the rationality of the present model. The study showed that enhancing both NPIs (including public vigilance, quarantine measures, and hospitalization) and the physical condition of the public (including susceptibility and recovery speed) contributed to decreasing the prevalence of COVID-19 but only increasing public vigilance and decreasing the susceptibility of the public could also reduce the virulence of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, controlling the contact rate and infection rate was the key to control not only the epidemic scale of COVID-19 but also the extent of its harm. On the other hand, the best way to control the epidemics was to increase the public vigilance and physical condition because both of them could reduce the prevalence and case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19. In addition, the enhancement of quarantine measures and hospitalization could bring the (slight) increase in the CFR of COVID-19.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.